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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Friday morning, December 9, 2022
Clues to unstable snow aren't in your face and that's the problem, because the snowpack remains curiously sketchy-
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass, and particularly terrain with an easterly component to its orientation. Human triggered avalanches breaking to weak, sugary, midpack snow are LIKELY. Mid and lower elevation shady slopes with similar layering offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE
LOW avalanche danger is found on low and mid elevation south facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Here's my exit strategy to avoid avalanche danger and uncertainty- I've been finding excellent riding conditions and fun meadow skipping on mellow, low angle south facing slopes and big open meadows with no overhead hazard... (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling). Remember, don't get too throttle happy because it's still low tide and there's plenty of reef barely hidden underneath our recent storm snow. With a significant danger of hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles, you'll wanna tone it down today and don't let a buried treasure ruin your season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Ginormous thanks to Young Power Sports and Polaris for all the UAC support by continuing our nearly two decades long partnership and providing two sleds for the upcoming winter forecast season and also helping me set my sights on a top down, summer option as well :)
In addition, huge thanks to Shaun, Weston, and the team at Inspired Summit Adventures for hosting such a great gig last night and to everyone who joined us for a solid night of avy education, positive energy, and super stoked vibe. Let's keep the spirit going!
Please join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view the full list of events for the week.
Mirror Lake Highway is closed for the season. SR-35 (Wolf Creek Pass) remains open.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Underneath a cloak of low lying clouds the Uinta's are phat and white while temperatures register in the single digits and mid to upper teens. After a quiet night, southeast winds began bumping into the mid 20's along the high peaks around 02:00 this morning. With great coverage, the riding and turning conditions are all-time.
Forecast- A wiggle in the storm track allows a weak system to slide through the region after sunrise, producing light snow showers which linger through the day. Not a big deal, but look for a couple inches of snow as the day wares on. Temperatures climb into the mid and upper 20's with overnight lows dipping into the teens and single digits. Winds shift to the west and southwest, bumping into the 40's along the high ridges for a brief period early today, before backing off into the 20 mph range by afternoon.
Futurecast- A break in the action is on tap for early Saturday before a multi-day period of unsettled weather settles in for Sunday through Tuesday.
A quick hitter is on tap for today
Andy and I traveled to Upper Mill Hollow midweek and found easy travel and excellent turning conditions on low angle slopes with no overhead hazard.
Meanwhile on the North Slope, Ted reports great riding conditions and smooth sailing in the Whitney Basin.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Wednesday, our main man with the Uinta plan, respected colleague, and forecaster extraordinaire Ted Scroggin got eyes on Yamaha Hill which avalanched naturally last weekend. Ted's got a great trip report from his travels in Whitney Basin found HERE.
A slew of additional Uinta obs HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once initiated, avalanches can break into weak layers of snow buried in the mid portion of our snowpack, resulting in a slide that gets quickly out of hand.
No dramatic changes in this camp. Yes the snowpack is adjusting to last weeks big storm and the lack of avalanche activity suggests a slow turn towards stability... good news. But, I can't ignore the inherently sketchy structure formed by two weeks of dry, bitter cold weather during mid November, which created a layer of very weak, sugary facets on the snow surface. And I can't cast aside the fact that those layers are preserved underneath several storms and buried in the mid portion of our snowpack. So yes, I'm thinking not only about the snow I'm riding in, but also the snow I'm riding on. Here's where the rubber hits the road and what makes things tricky right now... any avalanche that fails near our new problem child, the persistent weak layer or (PWL), is gonna break deep and wide and it's gonna be dangerous.
Unless you take your shovel out, dig down and investigate a bit, you can easily get lulled into a false sense of snow stability because the snowpack has gained a substantial amount of buoyancy and will feel strong and solid underneath us. But remember- hard, dense snow resting on weak, sugary snow can give us a false sense of snow stability, allowing us to get out further onto a slope before it fails and brings the entire roof down on top of us.
Obvious signs of unstable snow include cracking, collapsing, and whoomping noises as well as natures freebie... natural avalanches!
Micheal J's pit profile confirms our continued concern wit our snowpack setup. MJ's got a great trip report from yesterday while he was in the Hoyt environs.
Additional Information
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:49 on Friday December 9th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Saturday December 10h.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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