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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 26, 2022
With a strong sun and warming temperatures we'll see the avalanche danger rise to CONSIDERABLE on steep, sun exposed slopes today. Natural and human triggered loose, wet avalanches are likely and wet slab releases are possible. Avoid being on or under steep, sun exposed slopes that are wet and sloppy.
A MODERATE danger remains for human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that face NW-N-NE-E. Avalanches failing on this layer will be 2'-3' deep and warm temperatures today may increase the likelihood. Steep terrain right around treeline is the most suspect.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt, mud, and patches of packed snow. It gets sloppier as the days warm up. All wheel drive and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth at Gold Basin 55" Wind SW 15-20 G25 Temp 37F
Temperatures did not get below freezing last night and they've generally hovered in the mid 30's all the way up to Pre Laurel Peak at 11,700'. The SNOTEL site near the Geyser Pass Trailhead is reporting a blistering 46F as of 6:00 a.m. this morning. Today look for sunny skies, moderate westerly winds, and scorching temps in the mid 50's. Temps will not drop below freezing tonight in most areas and thin cloud cover will further put a damper on things. The heat wave continues tomorrow as the ridge axis moves overhead. Monday will be a transition day as a low pressure system makes landfall on the coast of Southern California. Tuesday still looks like we'll see some snow, with unsettled weather through the week.
Snowpack
A lack of an overnight refreeze, strong northerly winds during the week, and record breaking temps today are conspiring to create less than desirable snow conditions. In my travels yesterday I found limited opportunities for corn snow on southerly aspects and a lot of wind hammered surfaces on north facing slopes. Most surfaces this morning will be punchy and barely supportable at best, and they will quickly become wet and sloppy as the day heats up. As temps soar, loose, wet avalanches will become likely on steep, sun exposed slopes, especially in rocky or cliffy areas, and we may even see some wet slab releases.
On northerly aspects we still have a persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow that formed during the Jan-Feb dry period. The weakest snow exists right around treeline and this is the most likely elevation band for you to trigger an avalanche 2'-3' deep. Above treeline, the location of this weak layer is much more variable while below, warm temps have helped to consolidate and strengthen the over-riding slab making avalanches failing on this weak layer less likely at lower elevations. In my travels yesterday, I did not find evidence that this weak layer would become more reactive from the heat, but weird weather creates weird avalanche conditions, and as weird as things are this weekend, I'm thinking anything is possible.
Snow and Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Recent Avalanches
In my travels yesterday I observed numerous, loose wet avalanches, primarily at mid elevations on steep slopes facing E-S-W.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a strong sun and dramatically warm temperatures the avalanche danger will quickly rise on sun exposed slopes today. Both loose wet, and wet slab avalanches are possible. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes that are wet and sloppy. There's not much more to say about it. It didn't freeze last night. It's going to get sloppy quick. Stay off of it.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of dry, sugary faceted snow still exists on NW-N-NE-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2'-3' thick. Stability tests this week have shown that avalanches failing on this weak layer are becoming harder to trigger, but I've still been able to get propagation in some areas. The weakest snow exists right around treeline and this is the most likely zone for triggering an avalanche. Above treeline, the location of this weak layer is much more variable while below, warm temps have helped to consolidate and strengthen the over-riding slab making avalanches less likely.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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