Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, March 19, 2022

A 'scary' MODERATE danger exists on steep west to north to east facing aspects of all elevations. You can trigger 1-3' deep avalanches and you can trigger from a distance or from below. Collapsing and cracking may not be noted. Pay attention to heating and cloud cover to determine the wet avalanche potential and look for the development of wind drifts by the afternoon.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

A new piece called " A Reckoning " talks about the recent string of human-triggered avalanches in the Salt Lake area. If you missed the essay Deus Ex Machina, published just at the onset of close calls and accidents, you'll find it HERE>

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Weather and Snow

Skies are partly cloudy. Winds are light but they've begun to back to the west ahead of tomorrow's storm. Temperatures are in the upper-20s to low 30s.

Travel is easy with excellent coverage, particularly in the southern part of the range. Base depths are 80-90" in the south fork of Provo canyon and 40-60" in the north fork. Snow surfaces are a mix of sun crust, wind crust, and soft settled powder.

For today, expect the winds of change. Winds will continue backing to the southwest and I expect to see wind speeds of 30-40mph with gusts to 60 by late afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the mid-30s up high, the mid-40s down low. Mid and upper level clouds will begin to stream in throughout the day. Tomorrow's cold front crashes through mid-morning and while the storm looks like it is splitting apart, we may still pick up 2-4" by Sunday afternoon. We'll see.

Recent Avalanches

We haven't heard of recent avalanches in the Provo mountains but conditions are similar to those in the Salt Lake mountains.

We received a late report of a significant avalanche from Thursday. This avalanche was remotely triggered on the third trip up the skin track near West Deso on Thursday. The party of four collapsed the slope, triggering the 3' deep and 200' wide avalanche on a northeast facing slope at 9100'. West Deso is in upper Mill D North of BCC.

Find all the observations HERE.

Greg Gagne's Week in Review is published and can be found HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Human triggered avalanches 1-3' deep remain possible on steep west to north to east facing slopes of all elevations. You will probably trigger them from a distance.

People have triggered these soft slab avalanches failing on our Jan/Feb drought layer facets nearly every day for a month. These avalanches seem most problematic on north to northeast facing slopes at the mid-elevations but The TAKE-HOME is that a great deal of uncertainty* exists with this tricky and dangerous snowpack. Many professionals and many very experienced backcountry skiers and riders have been surprised or had close calls in the past week and a half.

Let that sit in for a moment.

We estimate the danger by looking at the likelihood, size, spatial distribution, and character, if you will, of the avalanche. For all intents and purposes, the size and locations haven't changed. What has changed is that these avalanches are more stubborn and less sensitive and - lacking immediate signs of instability (ie-cracking/collapsing) - will want to lure you out onto the steep terrain. Don't fall for it.

*Uncertainty. High uncertainty requires a wide margin for error.

Know that you don't know. You won't know exactly when and where you will trigger the avalanche, but you will probably trigger it from a distance. These types of avalanches are Unmanageable.
If you choose to ride suspect terrain, choose terrain that won't kill you if the snowpack disagrees with your assessment of it. Bashed through the trees, over a cliff and buried deeply in a gulley? No good.
Be cognizant of runout zones. How far will the avalanche run if you trigger it from below? Do you know how to estimate runouts?

TRAVEL ADVICE - CHOOSE LOWER ANGLE SLOPES WITH NO OVERHEAD HAZARD.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The wet avalanche conditions will depend on the cloud cover and winds. IF there is enough sun, watch for the solar aspects to become wet and unstable with daytime heating. IF the clouds result in greenhousing, the low/mid elevation polar aspects may produce some wet activity as well.

Signs that wet avalanches will start happening include; seeing other small wet slides, seeing snowballs or pinwheels roll downhill with increasing frequency, and seeing upper layers of snow become increasingly wet.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

By afternoon, the winds will be strong from the southwest. Watch for snow transport and fresh, potentially sensitive drifts in steep terrain. Wind drifts are more likely to be found on steep northwest to north to east facing aspects at the mid and upper elevations.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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