Started off today early up LCC with a loose plan of heading to the top of Flagstaff to see what had been ridden in Days Fork and if there had been any avalanche activity. Our group had been riding South lines for the past two days and were excited to see some new terrain. Topping out on Toledo Bowl around 8:00 AM we decided to ride Holy Toledo into Cardiff Fork with plans to head towards the lower angle terrain near George's Bowl rather than our original plan to look at Days. We had watched the slide in the Ivories yesterday from the same location so were aware of the avalanche activity on steeper terrain in Cardiff. Our group rode the first line down with no obvious signs of instability (confirmation bias) and regrouped before continuing up the East aspect above George's Bowl. We gained the ridge and took a look at the N-NW facing slope into East Fork of Mineral. This terrain looked steeper than expected at the top, which we discussed, but also well anchored by many large trees. We continued to the top of our line and rode a low angle East aspect back down into Cardiff before taking a break for lunch.

By this time the snow was heating up rapidly on the East aspect we were on as we began back up for another lap. As the group gained the ridge two of the three in the group experienced a large collapse on the skin track. We discussed the rapid warming and quickly moved up to the ridge off of the East facing slope. Had this slope been steep enough to slide, it surely would have. We continued up the ridge and decided to descend the East Fork into Mineral and out to BCC.

The group transitioned around 10,400' and discussed the steep portion of East Fork we were about to descend. We all looked at the digital map and concluded the portion above 30 degrees was short enough to manage. We decided to maintain a high line skiers left to try and keep a mellow slope angle then cut skiers right as the slope angle reduced. Rider 1 descended about 100' followed by Rider 2 and 3. We repeated this once more descending about 100' then regrouping. After the second regroup Rider 1 continued staying high left for another 50 vertical feet across the ridge, approx. 200' horizontal feet from Riders 2 &3. As Rider 1 stopped for the last regoup in a stand of trees the slope collapsed and shattered 50'+ back up the ridge. Snow began moving to the right of Rider 1, below Rider 2 & 3. Rider 1 yelled for Rider 2 & 3 to stay put and allowed the snow to slide into the trees below. The crown was approx. 2' deep, 70' wide, and debris pile was 2-3' deep. None of the group members were caught or carried. The group carefully descended into Mineral and out to BCC.

We made quite a few mistakes today and had a close call in avalanche terrain. The slope was windloaded more than expected and staying high on the line exposed us all to the portion that was wind loaded the most. Not giving the proper respect to the PWL and undereastimating the slope angle was the biggest mistake. We also underestimated the instability after watching many big lines being ridden in Cardiff and Mineral Fork. The forecast was spot on today and we are all thankful it didn't end up any worse than some shook nerves.