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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, December 29, 2021
Significant snowfall and strong winds have caused the avalanche danger to rise!
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing the south side of the compass where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County will be plowing the road this morning, expect to find the gate locked while plowing is in progress.
Grooming: Grooming will be temporarily on hold with continued snow in the forecast and a downed tree that needs to be cleared.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 12" 72 Hour Snow 14" Base Depth in Gold Basin 39" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 14F
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
We'll see a lull in the action today as the shortwave trough moves eastward this morning. Today look for mostly cloudy skies, a slight chance for snow showers, and increasing southwesterly winds blowing in the 10-20 mph range with gusts to 30 mph along ridge tops. High temps will be in the low teens. The next system will move into the area on Thursday, with the best chance for significant snow Thursday night into Friday.
Snowpack
The mountains picked up a foot of light fluffy powder yesterday and conditions below treeline were excellent. Exposed areas were heavily wind blasted and nearly continuous wind loading deposited deep drifts on to leeward slopes. Our snowpit revealed the continued presence of weak, sugary, October facets beneath a slab. This slab ranges from 2'-3' thick on terrain facing NW through E. Stability tests we performed show that this persistent weak layer is still stubborn to react, but with continued wind loading, and with more snow in the forecast, a fair amount of uncertainty surrounds it. What is certain is that any avalanche failing on these weak facets would be deep and dangerous. For now, steep, wind loaded slopes facing NW through E should be avoided.
Overall snow cover remains quite thin and rocks, stumps, and deadfall continue to pose hazards.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On slopes facing NW through E, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have formed over top of a dense slab, 2'-3' thick, that exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets. Over the past two weeks, these slabs have grown increasingly stubborn to release but to be sure, any avalanche triggered on this weak, faceted layer would be deep and dangerous. With more wind drifted snow continuing to add stress to this persistent weak layer, steep slopes facing NW through E are best avoided.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be possible on all aspects today. These will mostly be in the form of loose snow sluffs on very steep steep terrain and they could pack a punch as they gather snow. Stay out form under steep, high faces where natural releases could generate a signifiacnt amount of snow. Some soft slabs may also be present, look for signs of instability such as craking in the snow surface.
Additional Information
Travis Nauman provided us with another great pit profile. What we are looking for are harder layers over weak layers. The further a layer moves to the left, the harder it is. Note the soft, weak layer of sugary "facets" or "depth hoar" at the base of the snowpack with obvious harder layers forming a slab on top.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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