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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 28, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing the south side of the compass where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Expect to find a few inches of new snow with areas of drifting.
Grooming: Expect a few inches of new snow accumulation on the trails today. Follow @luna_moab on Instagram.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 27" Wind SW 15-20 G30 Temp 17F
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
Stop me if you've heard this before. We should see snow showers today as a short wave trough moves through the region. Given recent trends in the pattern we've been under, 2"-4" seem likely today with another 2"-4" tonight. Moderate SW winds will continue to blow with gusts into the 30's along ridge tops. High temps will be in the mid teens. Unsettled wintry weather with chances for light snow continues through the week with a much hoped for larger system on Friday.
Snowpack
Travis Nauman and Kelly Quinn braved the cold and blustery weather yesterday and were rewarded with spongy, styrofoam like snow conditions in sheltered terrain. Read their full report here. Exposed areas were heavily wind blasted and along with red flag wind loading on to leeward slopes, they noted the objective hazard of trees blowing down in the burn zone. Heads up out there folks! They also observed the continued presence of weak, sugary, October facets beneath a slab. This slab ranges from 2'-3' thick on terrain facing NW through E. Stability tests they performed show that this persistent weak layer is still stubborn to react, but with continued wind loading, and with more snow in the forecast, a fair amount of uncertainty surrounds it. What is certain is that any avalanche failing on these weak facets would be deep and dangerous. For now, steep, wind loaded slopes facing NW through E should be avoided.
Overall snow cover remains quite thin and rocks, stumps, and deadfall continue to pose hazards.
Cold, blustery, rimey! Travis Nauman photo.
Recent Avalanches
Dave Garcia ran across this old but previously unreported avalanche in Coyote Chute on Saturday. Like all the other slides this season, it was about 2.5" deep and failed on the October facets. Here is the current avalanche list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On slopes facing NW through E, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have formed over top of a dense slab, 2'-3' thick, that exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets. Over the past two weeks, these slabs have grown increasingly stubborn to release but to be sure, any avalanche triggered on this weak, faceted layer would be deep and dangerous. With more wind drifted snow continuing to add stress to this persistent weak layer, steep slopes facing NW through E are best avoided.
Additional Information
Travis Nauman provided us with another great pit profile. What we are looking for are harder layers over weak layers. The further a layer moves to the left, the harder it is. Note the soft, weak layer of sugary "facets" or "depth hoar" at the base of the snowpack with obvious harder layers forming a slab on top.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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