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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 27, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE above treeline on all aspects, as well as on northerly facing slopes near treeline where recent and wind drifted snow has created slabs from 24"-30" deep. All other terrain has a MODERATE danger for this type of avalanche and human-triggered avalanches are possible. Suspect slopes steeper than 35 degrees that are either wind drifted or that have more than about 10" of recent snow.
With a strong sun and rising temps be alert to an increasing MODERATE danger for loose wet avalanches today on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels and sloppy wet snow.
And finally, the recent snowload may increase the likelihood for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer. The danger for this type of avalanche is MODERATE on steep slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. Thinner snowpack areas and slopes made up of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points.
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Early this week, two different fatal avalanche accidents have occurred in CA and CO. Our deepest condolences to the friends and families of these victims.
The Geyser Pass Road has not been plowed and several inches of snow fell on Thursday. Numerous vehicles made it up yesterday but 4x4 is required.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) packed into Gold Basin yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 18" Base Depth in Gold Basin 78" Wind NW 10-15 Temp 13F
A beautiful day is in store with sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds, and temps climbing up into the mid 30's at 10,000'. Sunny skies continue through Monday with temps climbing higher each day. A weak system to the north will bring breezy conditions on Monday followed by clouds and a slight chance of snow Monday night into Tues. Dry and warmer weather returns for the remainder of the week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Close to 20" of snow has fallen since Wednesday and conditions are as good as they get. Get it today before the sun does. The new snow was not bonding particularly well yesterday and we observed several new snow, soft slab avalanches in steep terrain on all aspects above treeline yesterday. Southwest winds during the height of the storm Thursday drifted snow onto leeward slopes forming slabs 24"-30" thick. Though most of the loading was on northerly facing slopes, cross-loading and some shifting of wind has formed drifts on all aspects above treeline.
The recent dry snow will be very susceptible to daytime heating today. The most obvious effect will be loose wet avalanches as the snow gets wet and sloppy. A less obvious effect will be for the recent storm snow to coalesce into a more cohesive slab.
And finally, weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground. Recent and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this weak layer, particularly in thinner snowpack areas, around rocks, and in steeper, more radical terrain. Deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on buried facets are still occurring in neighboring Colorado, and we can't rule them out here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered, soft slab avalanches up to 2' deep remain possible on steep slopes on all aspects today. The danger increases with elevation where winds on Thursday formed drifts between 24"-30" deep on leeward slopes. Above treeline, these drifts exist on all aspects but the greatest amount of drifting has occurred on northerly facing slopes near treeline and above. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes today, and suspect any slope steeper than 35 degrees that has more than about 10" of recent snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The recent dry snow will be very susceptible to the effects of sun and daytime heating today. Be alert to signs of loose, wet snow instability including rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and out from uner steep slopes when these signs are present.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snowload may be enough to increase the likelihood of triggering a deep and danerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow that exists deep in the snowpack. Areas of rocky, more extreme terrain, where the snowpack is shallow and weak are the most likely areas to find trouble. New and wind drifted snow should present enough of a hazard to keep you out of these areas today, but be advised that deeper and more dangerous avalanches remain possible.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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