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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 28, 2021
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E and human-triggered avalanches are possible. In thinner snowpack areas - around rocks or in very steep, radical terrain, a triggered wind drift could break down into weak sugary facets causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
And, with a strong sun and rising temps be alert to an increasing MODERATE danger for loose wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels and sloppy wet snow.
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road has not been plowed and it is a mix of mud and snow that becomes increasingly sloppy as the day heats up.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) packed into Gold Basin on Friday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 11" Base Depth in Gold Basin 74" Wind NW 5-10 Temp 15F
A warm and sunny day is in store with light to moderate WSW winds, and temps climbing up into the low 40's at 10,000'. Winds will increase tonight ahead of a fast-moving storm system that will clip by to the north on Monday afternoon. Tomorrow will be sunny, warm, and blustery with SW winds blowing in the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 50. Winds continue into Monday night shifting to the NW. Temps crash into the teens Monday night and Tuesday will be sunny and comparatively cool. Dry and warming conditions make up the long term.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Close to 20" of snow has fallen since Wednesday and conditions over the past couple of days have been as good as they get. A strong March sun yesterday put an end to the powder party on sun-exposed slopes and most will be crusted over this morning. Southwest winds during the height of the storm Thursday drifted snow onto leeward slopes forming slabs 24"-30" thick. These are becoming more stubborn to release but I would still be suspicious of steep wind drifted slopes, especially in the high country. As things heat up today the danger for loose wet avalanches will increase on all sun-exposed slopes.
And finally, weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground. In thinner snowpack areas, recent and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this weak buried persistent weak layer. Shallow convexities and areas of very steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are places where you might still be able to trigger a deeper avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep remain possible on steep wind drifted slopes. You are mostly likely to find deep drifts on NW-N-E facing slopes near and above treeline but some cross-loaded slopes may be found on W and SE aspects. Drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and you are likely to find them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Keep in mind that a wind drift triggered in extreme terrain can have extreme consequences. Carefully consider your terrain choices and where you may end up if a slope avalanches.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As temps warm into the 40's today the danger will increase for loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels coming down the slope. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground. In thinner snowpack areas, recent and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this weak buried persistent weak layer. Shallow convexities and areas of very steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are places where you might still be able to trigger a deeper avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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