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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 29, 2021
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E and human-triggered avalanches remain possible. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
And, with a strong sun and quickly rising temps today, be alert to an increasing MODERATE danger for loose wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road has not been plowed and it is a mix of mud and snow that becomes increasingly sloppy as the day heats up.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) packed into Gold Basin on Friday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 74" Wind S 25-30 G50 Temp 32F
Southerly winds picked up around 10:00 p.m. last night and have been averaging 30 mph since. Look for continued strong southerly winds today as a low-pressure system and associated cold front dig through northeastern Utah and into Colorado today. Skies will remain mostly sunny in our area with high temps in the low to mid 40's. Temps crash tonight and Tuesday will be sunny and comparatively cool. Dry and warming conditions make up the long term.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Warm temps and a strong March sun have ended the weekend powder party and all sun-exposed slopes are crusted over. We did not get a solid freeze last night either and conditions will quickly become punchy before turning downright sloppy. Southwest winds during the height of the storm Thursday drifted snow onto leeward slopes forming slabs 24"-30" thick and today's winds will continue to blow and drift snow.
And finally, weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground. In shallow snowpack areas, recent and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this buried persistent weak layer. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
A lot of terrain in this photo remains problematic. Rock bands, steep convexities, and thin snowpack areas abound. These are likely trigger points for an avalanche where even a relatively small slide could have devastating consequences. The complex terrain features are also subject to wind-loading and cross-loading can occur from a variety of wind directions.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep remain possible on steep wind drifted slopes. You are mostly likely to find deep drifts on NW-N-E facing slopes near and above treeline but some cross-loaded slopes may be found on W and SE aspects. Drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and you are likely to find them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Keep in mind that a wind drift triggered in extreme terrain can have extreme consequences. Carefully consider your terrain choices and where you may end up if a slope avalanches.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As temps warm into the 40's today the danger will increase for loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs and pinwheels coming down the slope. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground. In thinner snowpack areas, recent and wind drifted snow has added more stress to this weak buried persistent weak layer. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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