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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Wednesday morning, February 24, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on many slopes at the mid and upper elevations. The avalanche danger is most prevalent on the northwest to north to east-facing slopes where weak faceted snow exists and on any recent wind drifted slope. Also, there is a more pronounced danger where the snowpack is shallower/thinner and in areas outside of the Upper Cottonwoods.
Considerable means; that dangerous avalanche conditions exist, careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making skills are essential.
Cornices are large and should be avoided. Give these yawning giants a wide berth if traveling on or below ridgelines.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Clear skies will eventually give way to increasing clouds as an upper-level trough moves into Northern Utah this morning. West and northwest winds will continue to blow 10-15 mph gusting into the 20's for much of the morning before slowing this afternoon. This storm is moisture-starved and short-lived, but it will bring a cold shot of air, keeping winter around. This storm may bring a trace to a couple of inches of new snow by tonight. Thursday, we quickly ridge (dry) out, followed by another wave Friday and another better-looking storm on Saturday that could perhaps bring 8-14 inches of new snow by Sunday.
Currently, the winds continue to be from the northwest and are blowing at speeds of 10-15 mph, gusting into the 20's at most upper elevation stations—mountain temperature range from 7°-15° F across the board. Riding and turning conditions are at an all-time high (for this year), and coverage is pushing 80-120" in the higher reaches of the Cottonwoods and 50-70" along the PC ridgeline.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry yesterday. You can read all the recent observations HERE.
Dangerous avalanche conditions consume the West: The backcountry community has suffered 24 avalanche fatalities in 25 days, the most recent from Idaho, Nevada, and from Monday - Wyoming. INFO. Utah is up to 6 avalanche fatalities for the season.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The avalanche danger is probably somewhere between MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE. It's hard to know exactly. The North American Danger Scale is broken up into three categories, Travel Advice, Likelihood, and Avalanche Size and Distribution. Based on Travel Advice, I would pick a CONSIDERABLE danger. Based on Likelihood, I would pick a MODERATE danger. Based on Avalanche Size and Distribution, I would choose a blend of MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE danger.
So, where does this leave us? Well, picture it like playing the classic 1989 game Minesweeper. The game's objective is to clear a rectangular board containing hidden "mines" or bombs without detonating any of them, with help from clues about the number of neighboring mines in each field. Sound sorta like the backcountry right now? Well, it's true.
As the likelihood of triggering an avalanche goes down, it becomes easier to step into bigger terrain. However, the consequences of triggering an avalanche remains the same, just like minesweeper. If we play the game with 200 mines on the field, we are more likely to hit a mine. If we remove the number of mines on the field, it becomes less likely (this can also be called probability). But if we hit/trigger a mine, we still lose the game.
For now - it will remain possible to trigger a deadly avalanche 2-5’ deep in an area where the slab is thinner, such as rocky terrain, or in areas that have previously avalanched this winter. While it may be possible to find this layering anywhere in the Wasatch, we are most suspect of terrain along the periphery of the Cottonwoods such as Mill Creek, the PC ridgeline, Lambs/Mt Aire, Snake Creek, and the transitional zone toward the Bountiful/Sessions.
What to do:
  • Dig down and if you see weak facets in the snowpack, avoid steep terrain.
  • Choose a completely safe uptrack. You are often more vulnerable while ascending.
  • Expose only one person at a time and keep tabs on people all the time.
  • Know what's above and connected to you - these avalanches can be triggered from a distance or below.
  • Slope cuts and cornice drops can be dangerous and dangerously misleading indicators of stability.
If all of this sounds confusing and hard to understand (it's okay) - take a step back and only ride in terrain that's under 30 degrees in steepness and continue to avoid avalanche terrain altogether. (my plan)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
For the past 24 hrs, the wind has been blowing from the northwest direction at speeds of 40-60 mph with gusts into the 70's at 11,000'. Across the upper elevation 10,000' ridges, the speeds have been 20-25 mph. High winds can deposit the lingering snow around terrain features on almost any aspect, called cross-loading. For this reason, I would expect to find hard or soft slabs of wind drifted snow at all upper elevations and on leeward mid-elevation slopes, especially along with terrain features such as ridgelines, sub ridges, and gullies. As always, look for and avoid slopes that look rounded, pillowy, or sound hollow.
Cornices have grown to an unmanageable size. Stay well back from - and avoid travel below - corniced ridges.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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