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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, February 21, 2021
Today HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline in terrain facing west, north, east and southeast. Avalanches will be 2-5 feet deep and hundreds of feet wide.
All other terrain below treeline offers MODERATE avalanche danger. Remember- many of these areas have a slab of snow resting on weak facets. And while the odds of triggering a slide have decreased somewhat, human triggered avalanches remain possible.
Riding conditions are excellent on low angle slopes and you can tag lower elevation south facing terrain before any glancing blow from the sun takes its toll. Take advantage of the many areas of gentle, rolling terrain that isn't steep enough to produce avalanches, but make sure to avoid being under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Mostly cloudy skies drape the mountains and light snow falls as a piece of energy slides through the region. Overnight, an inch or two of light fluff stacked up and temperatures remain winter-like this morning, registering in the teens at the trailheads and single digits along the ridges. Near the high peaks, west-northwest winds increased shortly after dinnertime, blowing steadily in the 20's and 30's through the night. Riding and turning conditions are all-time as storm totals since last Friday clock in at nearly 2' of snow with just over 2" of water... just slightly above our average snow densities. (Scroll to the bottom of the page to see two graphs showing snowfall since last Friday). The Uintas are white with total settled snow depths in the 3.5' to 6' range.
Forecast-
Scattered morning showers dissipate in the next few hours as high pressure builds across the region, ushering in partly cloudy skies. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning and overnight lows dip into the single digits. Northwest winds are gonna be a nuisance this morning, blowing in the 30's along the high ridges, but slowly wind down into the teens and 20's as the day progresses.
Futurecast-
Clear and warming for Monday, with a moisture starved cold front slated to clip the area Tuesday. A more organized system is expected to follow for Wednesday bringing a better chance for accumulating snow.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Friday, JG was near the south fork of the Weber River and remotely triggered an avalanche 8 feet deep and about 1000 feet wide on an east aspect near 10,000 feet. This is a remotely triggered avalanche which means it was initiated by JG and his partner merely walking near the slope.... not being on it! HEADS UP... THIS IS A MAJOR RED FLAG
In addition, on Friday a little further south in Mill Hollow, Mark spotted another recent avalanche that was only a day or two old. Hard to say if this is a natural or human triggered slide (there were sled tracks nearby) but what we do know is this slide on an east facing slope at 9,700' in elevation is 2 feet deep and over 1000 feet wide. Yet, another major red flag!
More obs, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
My partner and I traveled into mid elevation terrain yesterday and we were stoked to see how the snowpack has grown in depth and how well it's becoming comfortable in its own skin.
For an avalanche forecaster, watching the snowpack develop is like watching your child grow. Fortunately, I think we're starting to get out of the teenage years where you just look at the snowpack and it gets riled, but I still think there's enough uncertainty to warrant continued caution before handing over the keys to the car and turning our backs. JG's large slide just two days ago illustrates the setup.
While snow stability tests and overall snowpack depths are encouraging, the consequences of triggering a large slab avalanche breaking on persistent weak layers near the ground remains severe.
The good news is... the Uinta snowpack has gotten a lot deeper after last weekend's series of storms. The bad news is... recent snowfall made the slab much thicker and more dangerous. In places where the slab is thickest, avalanches are harder to trigger because it is harder to impact weak snow near the ground. However, thin spots, like around rocks or bushes, are often good trigger points and all we need to do is collapse the slope, trigger the slide, and now the entire seasons snowpack is crashing down on us.
The photo below shows weak snow near the ground, and how a snowmobile can stay on top of the snowpack. However, there are a lot of different ways for a sled or a skier to impact the weak layer. Because the snowpack is not the same depth across a slope, it's easy to hit a thin spot and trigger an avalanche. Tracks on a slope DO NOT mean it is stable.
Ted Scroggin is a savvy, avy pro and knows the Uinta Mountains better than anyone. He offered this sage advice... "To me, these are tricky conditions, there were some natural avalanches, some slopes have filled back in, and things look and feel good to go. Normally this time of year we are starting to venture out more on bigger slopes, but the current snowpack is still not to be trusted even though conditions feel great under our sleds and skis."
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds have been all over the compass, blowing from the southwest late in the week and just shifting west and northwest overnight. In either case, dense slabs formed on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Problem is... older drifts are covered over with fresh snow, making them hard to detect. And remember- wind slabs add additional stress to buried persistent weak layers keeping them on edge and ready to fracture and produce an avalanche. So today, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it feels hollow like a drum.
The photo below from Bald Mountain shows obvious drifting on the peak but trees in the foreground were untouched by wind and are still snow-covered.
Additional Information
Total snow depth graph from the Camp Steiner weather station for Friday, Feb 12 to Thursday, Feb 18.
Total snow depth and snow water equivalent from the Trial Lake SNOTEL site for Friday, Feb 12 to Thursday, Feb 18.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday, February 22nd.
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General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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