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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, January 27, 2021
Heads up... winds are cranking and sketchy avalanche conditions developed overnight-
In the wind zone at and above treeline, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep slopes and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY, especially in terrain facing the north half of the compass. Remember- fresh slabs are forming on a snowpack that resembles a house of cards and any slide triggered will break deeper and wider than you might expect. You don't need to be on steep slopes in order to trigger avalanches, you just need connected to them. Avoid being on, near, or underneath steep terrain.

Strong winds will penetrate sheltered terrain today you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger at mid elevations. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep, shady slopes.

I hear you're looking for LOW avalanche danger. Well then, here's your exit strategy for safer riding and avalanche avoidance. The Uinta mountains have plenty of low angle, rolly-polly terrain options (slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness). Think, big open meadows with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
High clouds drift into the region and southerly winds crank into the 30's, as a strong storm system churns along the California coast. It'll feel like winter this morning with current temperatures registering in the single digits at mid elevations and near zero along the high peaks. Riding and turning conditions are slowly improving, but it's still quite thin and the range looks like we're about a month behind, particularly at lower elevations.
Forecast-
The big headline for today are the southerly winds and they'll average 30-40 mph, increasing into the 50's and 60's by days end. High temperatures climb into the mid 20's and snow begins later today. Look for 1"-3" by about dinnertime with an additional 3"-5" overnight.
Futurecast-
It looks like an active pattern keeps unsettled weather coming our way this week.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
No significant avalanche activity to report.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Other than a shallow avalanche or two, the snowpack has been rather well-behaved the past few days. Sure we've got plenty of weak layers, and we've got a bed surface, and no shortage of triggers, but we've been missing a key ingredient... a slab! And that all changed early this morning as strong winds are beginning to change the landscape. In fact, I'd expect to see a fresh batch of cohesive slabs already forming, especially along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges.
And remember- our Persistent Weak Layer, buried in the mid portion of the snowpack is in its teenage years and it doesn't take much effort to get it riled up. Yesterday, pro observer JG reported big booming whoomphing sounds and sudden collapses of the snowpack ... eerie indicators of a weak, rotten snowpack with a dense layer of snow on top. And that was before the wind started blowing! Here's where it gets tricky... the surface snow may feel good to go, but we need to think about not only the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on. And here's where it gets dangerous- any slide triggered will break several feet deep, and a couple hundred feet wide, failing on one of the many persistent weak layers of faceted snow in the snowpack (see JG's beautiful pit profile and comments below).
JG has decades of Uinta snow and avalanche knowledge and says this about our snowpack structure- " I have a low tolerance for risk based on our snowpack setup so I'm going to continue to avoid terrain 30° and steeper. "
Video describing how you can trigger avalanches from below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The image above illustrates a 24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak, elevation 11,186', clearly showing a bump in the sustained ridgetop winds, ramping up right around midnight.
Ridgetop winds are beginning to crank and that'll help create drifts, sensitive to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, today you'll also want to be on the lookout for fresh drifts around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Remember- a fresh wind drift may break deeper and wider than you might expect, especially as it crashes down on a slope below. Easy to manage and even easier to avoid... simply lose some elevation and you lose the problem.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Thursday January 28th.
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General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.