Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 11, 2021
Human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride. However, due to a lack of sufficient snow cover on the majority of the terrain, the avalanche danger is isolated to specific features and therefore MODERATE. With the current snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow, steep, NW-E facing slopes with sufficient cover should be avoided for the foreseeable future. Most south-facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Saturday.
Chris Benson has detailed the last two weeks in this excellent synopsis.
I'm very sorry to report Utah's first avalanche fatality of the season. A 31-year-old man was killed in a backcountry area in the Wasatch Mountains know as Dutch Draw. Our sincere condolences go out to the family and friends. Here is the preliminary report.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 23" Wind N 10-15 Temp 15F
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion In our travels to the east side of the range on Sunday, pro observer Nate Ament and I continued to observe signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing. We also observed a general deterioration of the shallow snowpack. Below treeline, the entire snowpack is starting to lose cohesion with the overriding slab beginning to disintegrate as well. Near treeline, the overriding slab is stiffer and more sensitive. Above treeline, the snow in many areas has been ravaged by the wind, and scoured surfaces alternate with smooth, hard slabs and crusts. Conditions are deceiving due to the overall lack of coverage and the general inaccessibility of avalanche terrain, but if you went searching for an avalanche you could still most certainly find one. Pro observer Dave Garcia sums it up like this, "if I attempted to ski anything that has enough snow to actually make turns I would most likely trigger an avalanche." I've included a few photos from my tour on Friday that illustrate the kind of terrain you'll want to avoid.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow along with a couple of smooth, hard, melt feeze layers to form a perfect bed surface. Red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing continue to be oberved. Although avalanche terrain remains difficult to access due to low coverage, human-triggered avalanches are likely steep, northerly facing slopes that have sufficient snow cover.
These snowpit images illustrate the current precarious state of the snowpack.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.