Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Mark Staples on
Saturday morning, November 14, 2020

There are dangerous avalanche conditions today. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at mid and upper elevations and MODERATE at low elevations. Very strong winds are the main problem as they have formed fresh slabs of wind drifted snow that can easily be triggered.

On slopes not loaded by strong winds, it remains possible to trigger an avalanche in the new snow.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

Weather and Snow

Since yesterday afternoon, 5-10 inches of snow has fallen (containing 0.6-1.0 inches of water). Strong winds from the south blew yesterday and switched to the W and WNW overnight. This morning, winds at 11,000 feet are averaging 50-60 mph and gusting 80-90 mph from the WNW. Winds at lower ridgelines are blowing 10 mph and gusting 30 mph.

Temperatures started dropping around midnight, and this morning temperatures are about 20 degrees F at many trailheads, in the teens F above 9000 ft, and single digits F at 11,000 ft.

Today, snowfall should taper off, and skies should remain cloudy in the mountains. Temperatures shouldn't warm up much and remain in the teens F in many areas. Winds should remain strong at the highest elevations. At most places winds should ease later this morning and average 12-25 mph from the WNW and gust to 35 mph.

Photo of strong winds transporting snow yesterday in Little Cottonwood Canyon

Recent Avalanches

One small natural avalanche was observed yesterday as the winds started transporting snow. There were likely more but hard to see due to the drifting snow.

Photo - Natural avalanche in Albion Basin on an east-facing slope near 9700 feet. (D. Coyne)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

It's a really easy formula - 15 inches of snow and 80 mph winds at 11,000 feet = avalanches. When there are small avalanches happening before the storm just as a result of increased winds, then there will certainly be avalanches with more wind and new snow. In fact, as I was writing this forecast at 6 a.m., I got a call from Dave Richards at Alta, and we both agreed that natural avalanches were probably happening as we spoke.

Today, as snowfall tapers off and winds start to ease, there shouldn't be natural avalanches. Dangerous avalanche conditions will remain, and you can easily trigger fresh slabs of wind drifted snow 1-3 feet thick. The video below shows Trent triggering a wind slab on a small slope yesterday afternoon before the storm. Avalanches today will be bigger and more easily triggered.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The main strategy today will be to find slopes sheltered from the wind and to find snow untouched by the wind. The main concern on these slopes will be a layer of denser snow that fell yesterday afternoon when temperatures were warmer. This denser snow will be resting on some less dense snow that fell on Wednesday.

Avalanches will be possible where this denser snow rests on less dense snow. It should be bonding quickly, but for today may cause an avalanche.

Additional Information

There are a few things to remember:

Hitting rocks and stumps is a real danger. Don't end your season before it starts with an injury from hitting one of these obstacles.
Early season avalanches are a real possibility. It doesn't matter if you are hiking, hunting, skiing, etc., be prepared with rescue gear and a partner. Many people have died during early season snowstorms. Listen to our UAC podcast episode The Day of Madness in Little Cottonwood Canyon about a bad day in November 2011 when many avalanches were triggered, including a tragic fatality.
Ski resorts all have different uphill travel policies. These closed resorts that allow uphill travel can be great places to get in a little skiing especially in you know of a rock-free slope, but it should be treated as backcountry terrain. We will soon have an up to date resource on all the ski resorts individual policies.

Until more snow begins to fall, there are plenty of resources available to begin thinking about the season today:

Check out the free online avalanche course material and e-learning materials available.
Start looking at weather patterns in areas you plan to ski this upcoming winter. A full list of mountain weather stations can be found HERE.
Freshen up on how to read the forecast page.
Look over all of your gear and make sure everything is in good, working order.
Sign up for an avalanche class! Get it on the schedule early.

Bonus Material! Listen to our podcast on Early Season Essentials with Bo Torrey

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures