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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, January 16, 2020
The danger may not look much different from recent days, but recent strong winds have dramatically changed conditions. Today, look for signs of wind drifted at all elevations, and avoid those slopes.
Today, a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on all upper elevation slopes, and north, east and west-facing mid-elevation slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Human triggered avalanches are likely with naturals possible, particularly with cornice failure. Large cornices have been falling and more should fall today with high winds and warm temperatures.
Some localized terrain still possesses the potential to step down into the older weak layers deeper in the snowpack.
A MODERATE danger exists at south-facing mid-elevation slopes and all low elevations where wind drifts can exist on isolated terrain features.
ROOF AVALANCHES - With so much snow on roofs in mountain valleys, warm temperatures may cause snow to slide off roofs. These can be deadly especially for children playing near a house. A few roof avalanches were reported in Big Cottonwood Canyon.
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Weather and Snow
Mountain temperatures are currently in the upper 20s F at trailheads and mid 20s at ridgelines. The winds started to increase overnight and are currently south-southwesterly and averaging near 20 mph, with gusts near 60 mph at ridgetops.
Today, both temperatures and winds should be high. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s F at trailheads and low 30s at ridgelines and winds will average 25-35 mph with gusts up to 80 mph during the day. As the winds increase throughout the day, the cloud cover will also build.
Tonight will bring the highest winds, near 90 mph before the approach of a strong cold front early tomorrow morning that will bring a switch in winds. Tomorrow morning should have high snowfall rates between 5 and 8 am with about 7-12 inches of snow falling tomorrow.
Snow totals since New Year -
Solitude - 85”@4.14 SWE
Brighton - 100.5”@6.28 SWE
Alta - 100”@6.32 SWE
Canyons - roughly 53"@3.45 SWE
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday multiple new avalanches were reported in the backcountry, while the time occurrence for most of these avalanches is unknown, the assumption is that most actually occurred during the peak winds January 14th or overnight January 14th into the 15th. So far three avalanches have been reported on the Park City Ridgeline, and one avalanche reported up Silver Fork. Many of these avalanches were natural soft slab avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a density change 6-12 inches deep, but a few larger avalanches stood out. You can find the full updated avalanche list HERE.
South Monitor bowl, a repeat offender for the area, had a cornice triggered hard slab avalanche that failed approximately 4 feet down on a persistent weak layer of facets. This avalanche was on a Northeast aspect at 9,800 feet and 500’ wide. While no one witnessed this avalanche occur, Drew went out and looked at it yesterday and estimated that a cornice failed during the strong winds on Tuesday, which in turn triggered a size 2 wind slab that stepped down to the October/November facets at the ground. You can see the full observation HERE.
Below, is a video from yesterday discussing the South Monitor Bowl avalanche.
Some ski areas and guide services continue to trigger cornices and slabs of wind drifted snow large enough to bury a person.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The high winds are drifting snow and adding more stress to the snowpack. They will be increasing throughout the day until midnight tonight where they should reach gusts near 90 mph.
Yesterday the skies cleared, and the winds died down and we were able to see what had happened Tuesday. The entire range had been worked by the winds, and signs of wind drifted snow could be found at every aspect at every elevation band. Many slopes with slabs of wind drifted snow had been naturally triggered by cornice fall adjacent. Today I would continue to expect to find wind slabs at all upper elevation slopes and north, east and west-facing mid-elevation slopes. I would also expect to find some isolated wind slabs on south-facing mid-elevation slopes and steep wind loaded terrain features at low elevations.
As we add very high winds the south and westerly facing slopes will become increasingly scoured, and northerly and easterly slopes will continue to get loaded. These sustained strong winds have created stubborn hard slabs. These hard wind slabs can be more difficult to trigger meaning it could be the 4th or 5th skier on the slope that triggers an avalanche. They may also let you get further onto them before they break so that they break far around you.
While the high north-facing terrain will be most suspect very high winds can scour, swirl and impact unconventional areas. Zones that had previously been protected could begin to see signs of wind drifted snow at all elevation bands.
Today continue to look for slopes with any signs of wind drifted snow, such as cracking, hollow noises, and pillow-shaped snow and avoiding those slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday multiple avalanches were reported from cornices naturally falling during high winds on Tuesday. Today the winds will increase, and temperatures will be warm this will cause the cornices to continue to grow and their stability will be tested.
Today's conditions make these cornices likely to continue releasing and could trigger adjacent wind slabs on steep slopes below them.
If traveling near a cornice at all today, give them plenty of space both above and below. They can break back farther than expected while traveling on a ridgeline and could naturally trigger an avalanche above you if traveling below a cornice.
Photo below of a natural cornice failure on S. Monitor that triggered the adjacent wind loaded slope below.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We currently have two persistent weak layer issues, that are collectively impacting the entire compass:
  • Southwest through Southeast: We have a weak layer of facets adjacent to a crust on the mid and upper elevations that is now between 2-5’ deep. While we haven’t seen any recent activity from this layer, as we continue to add more load in the form of wind and snow I am not ready to write the south-aspects off yet.
  • West, North, and East: The early season October/November facets still exist at the ground, and we have now seen activity on them. Yesterday Drew saw an avalanche on South Monitor, a common repeater slope in which a natural cornice fall triggered a wind slab that appeared to step-down to early season facets at the ground. These repeater slopes, or slopes that have previously avalanched this season, are the most suspect. They have an overall shallower snowpack, therefore they are more likely to still possess those weak early season facets. Today as we add more load in the form of wind to these repeaters, and have a similar set-up to Tuesday, I would expect to see more activity on this layer.
Since the New Year, we got a lot of snow, nearly 100” inches, following that snowfall we have gotten extremely high winds. This combination of snow available for transport and the consistent high winds has begun to tip the scale when it comes to these early season facets. The increased winds today into tonight will just continue to add more stress to this persistent weak layer and steep, north-facing, thin terrain will continue to be especially suspect to step down into the facets at the ground.
Photo of South Monitor bowl avalanche that stepped down to the early season facets. (Photo: Laurent)
The take away: The persistent weak layers have made it possible to trigger an avalanche 2-4’ deep on nearly all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. I would avoid terrain steeper than 30 degrees and stick to low angle terrain with nothing steep above or adjacent to you.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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