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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Saturday, March 23, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through north through east, where slabs of wind drifted snow failing on the old dry snow can be triggered. Other terrain has a LOW avalanche danger early this morning, but the danger will increase to MODERATE for wet snow sluffs with heating and sun.
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Weather and Snow
A few more inches of snow fell overnight, with 3 day totals of 6 to 12 inches in the mid and upper elevations of the Ogden area mountains. The rain snow line was as low as 5,200' yesterday morning and as high as 6,800' by afternoon. Being spring and warm, the snow settles about as fast as it comes down, so you may find only about 1/2 that amount by afternoon today. Much of the terrain is dust on crust or damp snow, but there should be creamy, dense powder on upper elevation slopes, especially northwest through northeasterly facing, where there is soft snow beneath the new.
This morning, light snow should continue through about 8 am, with another inch or two possible at the upper elevations. Skies will then start to clear, leaving a mix of sun and high thin clouds for the afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and will soar into the mid 40s at the low to mid elevations, and to near 30 along the higher ridge lines. The winds are from the southwest in the Ogden area mountains, and very light - averaging about 15 mph at Mt Ogden. Winds are forecast to remain light, though speeds could pick up a bit along the highest ridge lines, averaging 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph at times.
Recent Avalanches
An excellent observation from Bill Brandt from Cutler ridge, where he was finding very sensitive new wind drifts on test slopes from 7,200' to 8,100'. These were releasing on low density snow up high, and near surface facets and surface hoar at the mid elevations, and were 40 to 100' wide.
The Ogden resorts reported very sensitive wind drifts and cornices at the upper elevations, averaging 1 to 2 feet deep, with one slide 3 to 4 feet deep. These were failing on a layer of low density new snow, and running on the melt-freeze crust. These became more stubborn in the afternoon.
Bill Brandt photo, Cutler ridge
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Approach steep, mid and upper elevation shady slopes with caution - this is where slab avalanches can be triggered today, possibly remotely or breaking out above you when you’re part way down a slope. Even on wind sheltered slopes, small soft slabs and loose sluffs can be triggered in higher elevation terrain. Even a small slide can have serious consequences in big, steep terrain, large gullies or if you’re above cliffs.
Bill Brandt photo, Cutler ridge
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wet snow sluffs are likely today when the sun comes out - both natural and easily human triggered. The high sun angle combined with periods of thin clouds means the snow will heat on all aspects. The more new snow and steeper the terrain where you are, the bigger these sluffs have to the potential to be. Running on the old melt freeze ice crusts, they may go much further than expected. When the snow gets damp, head to lower angle slopes and avoid travel in and below run out zones, like gullies.
Roof slides can occur at any time, especially with warming temperatures - always avoid travel beneath snow laden roofs and warn others.
Glide cracks can release at any time, sending the whole season’s snowpack down slope. Avoid spending time below the yawning cracks.
Cornices become more sensitive with heating, and are too large to tangle with or try to intentionally trigger. Avoid these monsters.
Additional Information
Slide-for-life’s may be possible on the hard crusts beneath the new snow. Consider some combination of crampons, ski crampons, Whippets or an ice axe if you’re heading into very steep, alpine terrain. Carry skin wax and a scraper to deal with alternating dry and damp snow.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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