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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, November 27, 2018
The avalanche danger is mostly LOW. An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain where stiff deposits of wind drifted snow may be found overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Suspect steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that have a hollow feel to them. This problem will most likely be found on slopes that have a N-NE-N aspect.
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Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear this morning and if all goes well, this should be the last time for awhile. An active but complicated weather pattern is developing upstream that should bring periodic snowfall through next week. The first system is on track for Wed-Thu, with potentially a larger event on Friday. Amounts are uncertain at this time but I'll keep you posted. Ridge top winds are light and westerly and 10,000' temps are in the mid teens. Look for increasing clouds and winds later today with high temps at 10,000' near 30 degrees.
18"-30" of snow exists on the ground above 10,000' on NW-N-E aspects, the problem is getting to it. Sun exposed are mostly melted out and coverage at mid elevations is exceedingly thin. We need at least a foot, and more realistically, two feet of snow before we can call it officially game on.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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