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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Monday morning, February 26, 2018

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all steep, upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast, especially those with recent wind drifts. Other steep slopes have a MODERATE danger. Complex and dangerous avalanche conditions exist – cautious route finding, careful snow pack evaluation and conservative decision making essential.

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Weather and Snow

Under mostly cloudy skies the southerly winds are beginning to increase as the next system to our west dives south off the coast of California. Current wind speeds vary with elevation.

  • Upper elevation winds are averaging 20-35 mph gusting into the low 40's.
  • 8,000' winds are 15-25 mph gusting into the low 30's.

Temperatures remain on the cold side this morning with ridge tops in the teens °F - trail heads are in the upper teens to low twenties °F. The riding conditions remain excellent with blower powder in the north facing sheltered slopes. Southerly facing slopes were kissed by the sun yesterday afternoon and will have a thin, zipper crust in places.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, explosive work by snow safety teams reported several large avalanches failing on steep upper elevation slopes. They were reported as 3 feet deep and large enough to break trees.

  • Find all current Ogden observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It's all about how much snow is available for transport - over the past week, upper elevation terrain received 20-40'' inches of new snow. As the southerly winds increase today - so will the danger. It will be most pronounced on upper elevation northwest through southeast facing slopes. Look for and avoid, rounded, smooth pillows of snow. Cracking of denser snow is sometimes an indication that you have hit a wind slab.

Cornices have continued to grow along the mid and upper elevation ridge lines. They often break back further than expected, so give them a wide berth and avoid travel below them.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

At what point do we start tipping the scales and our avalanche problem comes to life? this is a good question. Maybe, it's today with stronger south winds. Our snowpack is plagued with faceted snow that varies with aspect and elevation.

On some slopes, the faceted layers in our snowpack may have reached a breaking point. These deeper slides could be 2 to 3 feet deep, and are most likely to break on a mid-pack faceted weak layer, which are most widespread on northwest through easterly facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations in the Ogden area mountains. Any smaller triggered slide – such as a wind slabs or sluff – has the potential to step down to one of these deeper weak layers.

My strategy remains the same and I continue to avoid the bigger and more committing terrain - I just don't trust a faceted snowpack. I am leaving myself plenty of outs if the snowpack doesn't agree with my decision.

Video by: Bo Torry and Andrew Nassetta, check our their observation HERE.

Additional Information

Increasing clouds and southerly winds will be on tap today as a storm dives south over California. Unfortunately, this system will not deliver the snow like we were expecting a couple of days ago.

For today, we will see on and off again snow showers and in places we could end up with 2-5" of new snow. Mountain temperatures will climb into the mid to upper twenties °F. Winds will remain out of the south, blowing 15-25 mph gusting into the 30's at ridge tops. We will be under a warming trend for the next few days with a larger and more organized storm shaping up for the weekend.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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