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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Thursday morning, February 9, 2017

The danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE for wet loose and possibly wet slab avalanches on all aspects at the low to mid elevations. Even damp rollerballs and wet sluffs may be expected with provocation on all but the highest northerly elevations due to light rain and rapid warming. These will be unusual conditions over the next 48+ hours. Great uncertainty with these conditions warrants great caution.

Cornice-fall and roof avalanches are all inherently dangerous...and all are quite possible today. Ice climbing is not recommended.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

Maritime. The coastal ranges called, they want their weather back.

Overnight lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s! Precipitation continues to fall with a rain/snow line to almost 9500'. So far many areas have picked up .22" of rain. At least the southwesterly winds are blowing 30mph with gusts to 45. Snow surface conditions were described as "slide-for-life" at the mid and low elevations yesterday but these crusts will soften with heating and rain.

https://youtu.be/o2d_Og5FgZ0

Recent Avalanches

Natural wet sluffing and wet slabs noted in saturated, thinner snowpack areas. Pic: Mark Staples . Cornice fall also significant on some ridgelines in the SLC mountains; these prodded 1-2' deep wind slab avalanches below.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Cloud cover, a poor overnight refreeze, and light rain will keep wet loose and wet slab avalanches on the forefront. Furthermore, today's mountain temperatures will rise to the mid 40s F at 95000' by the afternoon; therefore even snow on all but the highest northerly elevations will start to rollerball and perhaps produce some wet sluffs with provocation in steep terrain. Unsupportable wet snow can be avalanche-prone and is a key sign to move to lower angle terrain.

ROOF AVALANCHES continue to be a significant concern. Avoid being in the "runout zones".

Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

These monster cornices continue to calve upon approach, often with little warning. They deserve a great deal of respect and caution. We've suffered a few tragic fatalities over the years with unsuspecting people trap-dooring through a cornice and killed by trauma on the ride down. Cornice-fall may still be able to crow-bar out a few lingering wind slabs below.

Additional Information

We'll have overcast skies and light rain that may be a bit more pronounced in Ogden and areas north. Winds will blow 30-40mph from the west southwest. Mountain temperatures will reach into the low 40s at 10,000'. 8000' temps will reach the low 50s. The next "atmospheric river" event kicks in overnight into Friday with a cold front following for overnight Friday into Saturday. The rain-snow line may initially hit 9500', though 9000' seems more likely. Expected snow totals are 10-18" through later Saturday.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.