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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, February 5, 2017

A MODERATE danger exists for lingering wind drifts at the mid and upper elevations. Wet avalanche activity will also rise to MODERATE on the steep sunlit slopes and low elevations of all aspects with daytime warming. Creaky old cornices along the ridgelines should be avoided with great caution.

Remember safe travel protocols save lives: make a plan, ski and ride one at a time, get out of the way at the bottom. Ask yourself: what will happen if I trigger even a small avalanche in this terrain below?

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Special Announcements

Also - for those that enjoy podcasts - Doug Krause has an excellent new avalanche-related podcast appropriately named Slide. It is a nice combination of practical advice, snow science, as well as human factor issues.

Last, and certainly least: if you have time to kill, check out our recorded live Instagram digital fireside chat from Wednesday night. These fireside chats are informal discussions on the state of the snowpack and involve questions and comments from viewers. We hope to have more in the coming weeks.

Weather and Snow

Skies are partly cloudy. Winds remain westerly to southwesterly, blowing 25-30mph, gusting to 40 along the higher ridgelines and peaks above Provo. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s. Riding conditions are quite good in the thick, supportable graupel and dense snow from late in the week. Snow totals on the ground are 85" at 7500' and 120" at 8800'.

Sunny aspects will have a breakable crust this morning. Low elevations are becoming soggy, wet, and in some cases, unsupportable. If you have a minute between the Super Bowl commercials this afternoon, I recommend rummaging through the closet to look for, uh, what they call, "wind-resistant" clothing to have on tap for the next several days. More on that in Mountain Weather.

Week in Review by Greg Gagne can be found here.

Recent Avalanches

Wet loose avalanches left decent debris piles yesterday at the lower elevations.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Time, warmth, settlement should conspire to help stabilize many of the last 48 hours of wind drifts. While sensitivity has diminished (but not to zero), the size will be roughly the same. Test slopes, ski cuts, and cornice drops will provide good indication of conditions. Remember that many of these lingering, isolated drifts are not limited to the classic leeward loading zones but rather well off the ridgelines beyond terrain features or cross-loaded into steep couloirs or gullies.

The growing white whales of cornices should be avoided with great caution and care. Recall that the old cornices tend not to break at the apex, but well back beyond the ridgelines.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Snow structure and stability seem good here as we've had no cracking or collapsing or recent avalanches noted on this layering, but this next set of storms will provide a good test.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Reports of the lowest elevations indicate a soggy, nearly unsupportable mess at the lower elevations. Continued warming today should keep wet loose avalanches on your radar in the lowest elevations or on your exits to the trailheads. Pay particular attention to steep cut-banks or steep rolls into creekbeds where the wet debris may pile up more deeply.

East to south to potentially southwesterly aspects will soften and become damp with direct sun and daytime warming. With enough solar input, human triggered wet loose avalanches will be possible in the steep sunlit terrain today. Cloud cover will probably offset this potential on the westerly aspects by mid-afternoon.

Additional Information

Today will be a bit of a break day ahead of the next series of storms. Did I mention wind? They'll kick in early evening. A wet, warm, and windy series of storms approach from the west that'll bring heavy dense snow to the northern and central mountains of the state. Accompanying winds look to rarely be below 30mph with some hourly averages approaching 50mph with gusts to 70. The rain/snow line may rise toward 7500' by Tuesday. All told, I can see 16-24"+ in areas favored by a westerly flow by Thursday.

General Announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

EMAIL ADVISORY If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.

DAWN PATROL Hotline updated daily by 5-530am - 888-999-4019 option 8.

TWITTER Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

UDOT canyon closures: LINK TO UDOT, or on Twitter, follow @UDOTavy, @CanyonAlerts or @AltaCentral

Utah Avalanche Center mobile app - Get your advisory on your iPhone along with great navigation and rescue tools.

Powderbird Helicopter Skiing - Blog/itinerary for the day

Lost or Found something in the backcountry? - http://nolofo.com/

Ski Utah mobile snow updates

To those skinning uphill at resorts: it is critical to know the resort policy on uphill travel. You can see the uphill travel policy for each resort here.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you shop from Backcountry.com or REI: Click this link for Backcountry.com or this link to REI, shop, and they will donate a percent of your purchase price to the UAC. Both offer free shipping (with some conditions) so this costs you nothing!

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on ebay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your ebay account here and click on ebay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.
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