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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Friday morning, March 18, 2016

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. The two primary concerns are (1) wind drifted snow at upper elevations and along the Park City ridgeline, and (2) wet loose avalanches as the strong March sun warms the snow surface.

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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear this morning and temperatures are in the teens and low 20's.

After diminishing somewhat last evening, winds out of the West and Northwest have picked up again overnight and are blowing in the mid elevations in the teens with gusts in the 20's mph, and upper elevation anemometers are spinning along in the 20's mph with gusts in the 40's.

Enough sun appeared on Thursday to crust the snow surface on Southeast through West aspects.

A quick review of weather and avalanche activity from this past week is helpful for understanding the current and forecasted avalanche problems: A storm system moved in on Monday and it continued snowing through Wednesday morning. Storm totals were 15-30" in the upper Cottonwoods, with about 12" along the Park City ridgeline. Accompanying this storm system has been a prolonged period of generally sustained winds from Westerly directions. Human triggered avalanches have occurred on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday on aspects facing North through East between 9000' - 10000', and a large natural avalanche occurring on Wednesday morning on a Northeast aspect at 10600'. These slides have involved both storm and wind-drifted snow, and some have been large enough to bury a person. Beginning today, we are expected to undergo a gradual period of warming that is likely to introduce the onset of wet avalanche activity.

Recent Avalanches

One slide of significance was reported from Thursday. This occurred on a Northeast aspect on the Park City ridgeline and was an intentionally-triggered avalanche on a freshly wind-loaded slope from a cornice kick. The crown was up to 3' in places, and it propagated 150'. UAC Pro Observer Mark White seems to have a magical touch for safely finding the right slopes to avalanche, and you can read his usual excellent observation here.

Otherwise minor wet loose activity was observed on solar aspects as the skies began to clear on Thursday afternoon.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Although winds are mercifully forecasted to diminish today, much of the upper elevations have been wind affected from the persistent winds over the past few days. While I am expecting wind drifts to be less sensitive today, the prolonged period of Westerly winds warrants our continued attention to wind drifted snow in the high alpine areas of the Cottonwoods as well as along the Park City ridgeline. Although you are most likely to find wind drifts on aspects with an Easterly component, the channeling of winds through terrain features have drifted snow on all aspects at the upper elevations.

Many observers have also noted the growing cornices which remained quite sensitive on Thursday.


Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With the Vernal Equinox only two days away, the strong March sun will quickly heat the snow today with both natural and human-triggered wet loose slides likely, and decent storm totals from this past week are providing the sun with a good amount of fresh snow to work with. Although I am expecting wet activity primarily on East, South, through West aspects, it is possible that lower elevation North aspects may warm as well.

Be sure to get off of and out from underneath slopes as they warm from the sun. Signs of warming include wet, sloppy snow as well as rollerballs. With natural wet sluffs possible today, avoid travel below steep sunny slopes and gullies.

Additional Information

Winds are expected to continue to blow this morning from the West and Northwest with speeds in the teens at 9000' and mid 20's mph at 10000', with gusts in the 30's and 40's mph above 10500'. Fortunately winds are forecasted to rapidly diminish by late morning. Temperatures are expected to climb in the mid 30's F at 8000' and mid 20's F at 10000'. Expect mostly sunny skies with an occasional passing cloud. A ridge of high pressure will move over Utah this weekend with a significant warming trend expected.

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If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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