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Forecast for the Abajo Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 12, 2016


Most terrain offers generally LOW danger. With a little bit of snow in the forecast, combined with moderate to strong winds, we may see some wind slab development on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

The Abajo / Blue Mountain advisory provides detailed snow, mountain weather, and avalanche information on weekends. During the week, an overall danger rating will be provided with current condition information available through the weather links below.

Confused about danger ratings and how to apply them to your terrain choices? Check out this great video produced by the USFS National Avalanche Center.

Weather and Snow

Things are looking a little tired and worn down in the Abajo/Blue Mountains. South facing slopes are nearly melted out, and the existing snow surface is mostly crusted over. Some soft powder-like conditions can still be found in sheltered, shady aspects.

It's blustery out there today with SSE winds blowing in the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures have been steadily dropping overnight, and it's currently only 20 degrees on Abajo Peak, and right around freezing at Buckboard Flat.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With a little bit of snow in the forecast, along with the kind of winds we've been having, we may some some shallow wind slabs developing on the lee sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features today. They aren't likely to pose much of a problem, especially if you are on a sled, but they'll be worth noting if not just for a point of interest.

Additional Information

A weak system will move through the 4 Corners later today, bringing us mostly cloudy skies by this afternoon and maybe and inch or two of snow. Skies will clear by tomorrow as the system moves on. By Monday, another weak system on a westerly flow offers another chance at snow.

Today

Snow showers, mainly before 3pm. High near 36. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. West northwest wind around 15 mph becoming southwest in the morning.

Sunday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph.

Monday

Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of

General Announcements

Let me know what you are seeing down there by posting an observation here. You can also call me on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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