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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, February 13, 2016

This may be a conservative estimate, but the wet avalanche danger is MODERATE and may even reach CONSIDERABLE with sun and daytime heating today. Wet avalanche conditions - particularly wet slab conditions - can be notoriously difficult to forecast. Keep an eye on the weather and the supportability of the snow, particularly on the thinner east to south to west facing aspects.

Cornice fall along the ridgelines and glide releases in Stairs, Broads, and Mill B South of Big Cottonwood Canyon round the list of concerns for the day.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Check out our Garage Sale! Chock full of sweet backcountry gear - you can find the goods on our Facebook page here -

Tuesday, February 16th - Companion Rescue Clinic at Weller Recreation in Kamas from 6:30-9pm. For more info HERE.

WBSKIING: Steve Achelis has released his updated Wasatch Backcountry Skiing desktop webpage - wbskiing.com

Blog post - Guest blog post by George Vargyas, MD - Avalanche Trauma Mortality and Helmet Use. It may surprise you.

Weather and Snow

The ridge of high pressure is finally breaking down and we're starting to see some moisture streaming in from the west. Not that the junk in the valley is necessarily going anywhere, but the pattern change will at least allow for some weaker storms to chip away at the thing until things mix out hopefully by late Monday. West to southwest winds picked up and are blowing 10-15mph with gusts to 25.

Mountain temperatures are interesting. Certainly the lower elevations are in the low 20s; the highest elevations are in the upper 20s to low 30s; but a number of stations in the mid-elevation "thermal belt" have stubbornly warm temperatures that are loathe to dip below freezing. Many have had two nights well above freezing and some haven't seen temperatures below 32°F since the 8th. Sure you'll find crusts out there, but the crusts will likely be superficial in nature.

Wind, rime, and melt-freeze crusts dominate the snow surfaces, but you can still find sanity in the mid-elevation sheltered terrain.

Recent Avalanches

None reported.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Most of the initial wet activity ran last weekend into the early part of the week, but I'm concerned with the poor refreeze at many of the mid-elevations from the last two nights. Some stations in the mid-elevation band haven't dipped below freezing since the 8th. This isn't to say that long wave radiation under clear skies hasn't cooled the snow surfaces enough to refreeze, it's only to say that it's possible that some crusts may be superficial - like a wolf in sheep's clothing - while free water percolates down into the pack, looking for crusts or weak layers to pool above or saturate, leading to wet slab conditions.

I wasn't the only one to find punchy, unsupportable snow on some south to west mid-elevation terrain yesterday, particularly in thinner areas. It's not a good sign. Simple ski pole tests should also tell the tale. If you're punching through today, finding free water running and pooling at interfaces, or getting collapsing in the isothermal regime, change to cooler aspects or seek low angle terrain. You'll see one of the things we do to gauge wet slab potential in regards to pooling water in the video from the Park City ridgeline, below, with the AAI Level 3 avalanche class.

Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Down the road -

  • Plenty of surface hoar and recrystallized snow on the snow surface in many sheltered northerly terrain. It what has kept the turning conditions soft over the past week. These may be an issue the next time we see a significant storm.
  • The initial high rain/snow line with the storm on January 29th left a crust up to - in some cases - 8500'. I found full propagation in weak snow either beneath this crust or in a facet/crust sandwich, but feel these results are "false-unstable" until we get a more significant load on this layering. This layering is a foot or so deep and limited to a narrow mid-elevation northerly terrain band.
  • The Deep/Persistent Slab issue is mainly dormant. The last human triggered slide on this layering was almost two weeks ago on the Park City ridgeline.
Additional Information

We'll have some increasing cloud cover this morning as the first of two weak disturbances blow through northern Utah. We'll have moderate west to southwest winds along the ridgelines. Temperatures are cooling a bit and should at or below freezing at 10,000' with temps in the 40s at 8000'. Skies may start to clear a bit in the early afternoon. The 2nd wave arrives tomorrow, ushering in even cooler air along with moderate to strong northwest winds. We may see "storm totals" of 1-3" from midday Sunday through late Monday. Shortwave ridging moves back in for Wednesday with another stronger system on tap for Thursday.

General Announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to launch a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort/PCMR Dispatch (435)615-1911

Snowbasin Resort Dispatch (801-620-1017), Powder Mountain Dispatch (801-745-3772 x 123).

Sundance Dispatch (801-223-4150)

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Utah Avalanche Center mobile app - Get your advisory on your iPhone along with great navigation and rescue tools.

Powderbird Helicopter Skiing - Blog/itinerary for the day

Lost or Found something in the backcountry? - http://nolofo.com/

Ski Utah mobile snow updates

To those skinning uphill at resorts: it is your responsibility to know the resort policy on uphill travel. You can see the uphill travel policy for each resort here. IMPORTANT: Before skinning or hiking at a resort under new snow conditions, check in with Ski Patrol. Resorts can restrict or cut off access if incompatible with control and grooming operations.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.
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