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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 29, 2015

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE​ on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here the possibility for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche remains likely. On sheltered, lower elevation slopes, and on those that face the southern half of the compass, the danger is MODERATE.

Low
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Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Plow crews have not been up to the Geyser Pass Trailhead since Thursday, and strong winds and more than a foot of snow have created deep drifts across the road. Vehicles have been pushing up to within several hundred yards of the parking area but 4wd and chains are a must. Vehicles are making it to the Trans La Sal Trail head without too much trouble.

Weather and Snow

The wind event of Saturday the 26th wreaked havoc on upper elevation, wind exposed terrain and the snow surface is heavily crusted and featured. Good powder conditions can still be found in sheltered areas, and with nearly three feet of accumulated snow since this time last week, it's deep out there. Southwest ridge top winds averaged in the mid 20's for most of the day yesterday with gusts into the mid 30's. They backed off early this morning and are currently blowing in the 10-15 mph. It's 4 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak and 9 in Gold Basin.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 65"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

Recent Avalanches

Snow from the Christmas storm, and the wind event of Dec 26, produced natural avalanche activity on all aspects. Slides on slopes facing W-S-SE were pockety in nature, and consisted of newly deposited wind slabs averaging 2- 3' deep. More significant slides occurred on north and east facing aspects including a full depth release more than 6' deep on the east face of Tukno. For a complete list of observed avalanches go here.

East face of Tukno. Slide on left ran full depth to the ground whereas slide on the right ran down to a mid level persistent weakness.

View shows two other slides in Gold Basin. Only Gravel Pit Lanes ran full depth.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slab problems vary and we have variety of weak layers in the snowpack. At upper elevations, it is possible to trigger persistent slab avalanches to the ground though it is more likely that one would be triggered on a mid-level faceted layer, or on an old hard wind slab surface. Right around treeline or just below, basal facet growth is more accelerated, and a significant load has just been added. The potential for full depth avalanches exists in these areas. For the time being it is best to avoid northerly facing aspects steeper than about 35 degrees.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There still may be some isolated, stubborn wind slabs left out there from the wind event of Dec. 26. Remain on the lookout for smooth deposits of wind drifted snow on the lee sides of terrain features.

Additional Information

A series of short wave disturbances will keep our area under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow showers into Thursday. Ridging tries to build over the weekend followed by continued unsettled weather next week.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8. Light west southwest wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind around 5 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind around 5 mph. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -20. West wind around 10 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 5. North wind 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -3.

New Year's Day

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 8.

General Announcements

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

Grooming: Matt and Travis braved the road and packed out the track into Gold Basin yesterday. They're going to try and get back up today and pack out over Geyser Pass.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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