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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, April 8, 2013

Additional new snow and intensifying east and northeast winds will cause an increasing danger today. Heightened avalanche conditions already exist in the backcountry, and there is a MODERATE (level 2) danger of wind slab avalanches in drifted terrain, storm snow avalanches at upper and mid elevations, and wet avalanches in areas with weak saturated snow. Dangerous wind slab avalanche conditions and a CONSIDERABLE (level 3) danger could develop during the day today, with triggered 1 to 2+-foot-deep wind slabs and/or cornice falls becoming likely and an overnight natural cycle possible in drifted upper elevation terrain. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, avoid steep drifted terrain, and continue to follow safe travel protocols....

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports another several inches of new snow, containing 8/10ths of an inch of water in the last 24 hrs, bringing the 72-hour total up to 2 inches of water in something like a foot-and-a half of fresh heavy snow. With 57"of total snow, the station now contains 58% of average water for the date, and it's 30 degrees this morning. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' reports 23 degrees, currently with easterly winds averaging around 10 mph. Yesterday's strong southwest winds peaked in the evening and diminished into the teens overnight, but will intensify again today as they shift around from the northeast. You'll find lots of new drifted and somewhat heavy snow at upper elevations capping slowly solidifying wet snow.. Expect a rising avalanche danger, with more new snow, increasing east and northeast winds, and a good deal of continued drifting in the mountains today. Dangerous and potentially unmanageable wind slab avalanche conditions may develop in some drifted upper elevation areas during the day today, with triggered avalanches becoming likely and naturals possible....

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Area.....

But, a very large natural heat related persistent slab avalanche occurred in the midday heat on Wednesday in the Western Uintas. Graig Gordon and Ted Scoggin of the Utah Avalanche Center visited the site Thursday and report something like a 3/4-mile wide and four-foot deep monster....

Here's a link to our updated Avalanche List.

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With over a foot of heavy new snow and two inches of water equivalent in the past 72 hrs, there is plenty of fresh snow for intensifying east and northeast winds to drift around at upper elevations. With several addition inches of accumulation possible and increasing east and northeast winds today, triggered wind slab avalanches in the 1 to 2+-foot-deep range could become likely in drifted upper elevation terrain, and some natural activity is possible by this afternoon. Watch for and avoid stiffer snow and fresh drifts on the lee of major ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, rock bands, and gullies. In very isolated places, the wind drifts could overload pockets of shallow weak snow, often near rocks, in upper elevation terrain, resulting in a deeper slide.

Freshly built-up and greatly enlarged cornices are also a concern, as they are likely to be hair-trigger sensitive today, might break further back than you expect, and could trigger wind slab or storm slab avalanches on slopes below.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With new snow over the weekend containing 2 inches of snow water equivalent, as reported by the Tony Grove Snotel, soft slabs and entraining point releases or sluffs consisting of heavy storm snow are likely in steep upper and mid-elevation terrain and possible even in areas that are generally sheltered. Any steep slope with a foot or more of freshly accumulated snow is suspect.

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Gradual cooling and cloud cover over the weekend paused the meltdown and helped to solidify the soft and saturated snow.. Even though the danger is dropping with the temperatures, wet avalanches remain possible after an extended warm spell and some recent rain at mid elevations. Pockets of heightened wet avalanche conditions linger in steep terrain, and in some areas the fresh snow from over the weekend could be moist enough for entraining loose wet avalanches. With midday temperatures forecast in the upper thirties at upper elevations again, the danger will rise during the day, and an early departure from the mountains will be a good call. You should continue to avoid all steep terrain where you sink or punch down into saturated snow.

Additional Information

Better pull the goggles out of the closet, wax up the boards, or oil up the sled. The season is waning, but it looks like a powder day today, and there's a few more on the plate this week. A cold Pacific storm will bring more snow to upper elevations today, with 3 to 7 inches of additional accumulation and strengthening easterly winds forecast. Expect 9000' temperatures to climb into the upper thirties again and 15 to 20 mph easterly winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph or stronger from the northeast in the afternoon. Winds will peak tonight and snowfall should continue, with another 2 to 4 inches of accumulation forecast. Snowy and windy weather will continue through Tuesday, with short-lived clearing and a bit of a warm-up on Wednesday...

Check out the Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

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Remember your information from the backcountry can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche, or see anything else we should know about, please send us your snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

I will update this advisory on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by around 7:30...

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.