Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Rapidly rising and very warm mountain temperatures will create heightened avalanche conditions and a MODERATE (or level 2) danger in the backcountry today. Wet and heat related avalanches will become increasingly possible as the day warms and saturated snow softens. Avoid steep terrain with saturated snow, and plan on an early departure from the backcountry due to rapidly warming snow. Today's warming will cause a general increase in avalanche danger. Dangerous persistent slab avalanches are still unlikely but increasingly possible in isolated outlying terrain with poor snow structure, and you might trigger wind slab avalanches or cornice falls in drifted upper elevation terrain. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and avoid areas with soft and saturated snow, shallow rocky terrain, and steep drifted slopes.

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Moderate
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High
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Special Announcements

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Weather and Snow

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 33 degrees, and with 59" of total snow, the station sits at 67% of average water for the date. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' reports 29 degrees and west-southwest winds picked up overnight and are averaging in the low to mid twenties with gust of 37 mph early this morning. You can still find fairly nice somewhat dry snow on north facing slopes at upper elevations, but the snow is pretty wind jacked in exposed terrain and elsewhere sun and warm temperatures created crusty or soggy snow conditions....

Recent Avalanches

A rider triggered a small wet slab avalanche on a west facing tailings pile yesterday at the quarry in lower Providence Canyon. Otherwise no avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone

Here's a link to our updated Avalanche List.

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
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Likelihood
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Description

The temperature at the Campbell Scientific Logan Peak weather station is already a couple degrees above yesterday's high, and the forecast 46 degrees for 9000' will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Wet and heat-related avalanches will become possible as the day warms and as the saturated snow at lower elevations softens up. Avoid steep terrain with warmth softened and saturated snow today, watch for potential terrain traps below steep slopes, and plan on an early departure from the backcountry due to rapidly warming conditions.....

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Be aware that today's rapid warming will also cause a general increase in avalanche danger...

  • Isolated persistent slab avalanches up to around 2 feet deep, failing on weak sugary faceted snow are possible in outlying areas with shallow and poor snow structure. The added stress caused by increased creep rates of the upper layers might be enough to activate buried dormant weak layers in some areas, and warmth-caused softening of existing hard slabs could make human triggering easier. Although rather unlikely, dangerous triggered avalanches are certainly a possibility on isolated slopes. I've recently found poor snow structure mostly in shallow mid-elevation terrain, and it's more widespread in the eastern and northern reaches of the Logan Zone.
  • You should continue to avoid steep drifted slopes. Stiff wind slabs from strong westerly winds over the weekend and Monday still exist in upper elevation lee terrain. In some cases these built on weak sugary or faceted snow and could be sensitive to your weight. Watch for and avoid stiffer wind deposited snow on the lee side of major ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, cliff bands, scoops, and gullies. Today's warmth will cause overhanging ridge-top cornices to buckle and sag, and some may naturally collapse. Cornices might break further back from the edge than expected, and cornice falls could trigger more dangerous slab avalanches on steep slopes below....
Additional Information

Expect mostly sunny skies, with a southwest breeze and 9000' high temperatures around 46 degrees. Temperatures should drop to around freezing tonight with partly cloudy skies. Expect even warmer conditions tomorrow, with 9000' temperatures forecast at 52 degrees... We'll see a few clouds on Friday and perhaps a few degrees cooler temperatures. There is a chance for a little snow over the weekend and clouds will likely cool things down a bit.....

Check out the Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

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For a printer friendly version of this advisory click HERE

Remember your information from the backcountry can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche, or see anything else we should know about, please send us your snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

I will update this advisory on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by around 7:30...

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.