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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, January 15, 2013

A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered slides 1-2' deep on the steep west to north to east facing slopes of all elevations. The danger is most pronounced at the mid-elevations. These avalanches may still be triggered at a distance, particularly with any additional wind loading. The danger associated with wind drifting on steep south to east facing slopes will also be MODERATE...though generally confined to the high ridgelines.

With a building high pressure ridge and warming temps, I anticipate a number of roof-a-lanches over the next several days, starting tomorrow.

LOW danger – there is plenty of untracked powder left on slopes less steep than about 35 degrees, that are not under or connected to steeper slopes.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Bruce will be giving a free Science of Avalanches class at the SLC REI tonight at 7pm. More info can be found here. Onine registration is encouraged.

We have 2 more donated items being sold via auction: A day of cat skiing in the Uintas with Park City Powdercats (January or March) and an Arva EVO3+ beacon, new in the box. Treat yourself and support the UAC and their sponsors.

Weather and Snow

Gary Larsen, genius of our time, has this great cartoon of a bundled up person outside of an igloo reporting back with the spot weather nowcast. "Yup, it's still cold", she says. Indeed. Temps are actually not all bad in the mountains...most stations are on the plus side of zero degrees (barely), which is a far cry from 49 below at Peter Sinks not far from Logan. Skies are overcast with a lost snowflake here and there...and we may see a touch of rime by mid-morning. With building high pressure working its no good magic, the north to northwesterly winds picked up last night along the highest ridgelines are continue to blow 20-30mph with gusts to 45.

Recent Avalanches

We had no reports of any avalanche activity from the backcountry yesterday.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Since the end of the storm, we've seen 10 human triggered slides that stepped down into the weak early January faceted snow, with some very close calls. I'd like to discern a pattern here - that is - that these have been roughly 8-10,000' on steep north through east facing slopes...but I can't. Prior to the storm, the mid and low elevation snow was quite weak particularly in the thinner snowpack areas. Dump 1-3' of snow at these elevations and you'll see the unusual avalanches. Exhibit A: Antelope Island, - close call and remotely triggered slides at 6000' in elevation. Exhibit B: collapsing noted in the foothills.

Still, spatial variability is near an all-time high. A couple obs from Ogden over the last couple days - here and here.

Knowledge of the pre-existing snowpack is key in these situations - it hasn't gone unnoticed that many of the old hands have stayed on the southerly aspects - even at the low elevations - avoiding much of the weak snow altogether. Again, slope angle is the great equalizer - slopes less steep than 30 degrees are still great and safe as long as nothing steeper is above.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The winds will be the wild card. I expect drifting to be general along the highest ridgelines, and most pronounced on the steep south to east facing slopes. Slope cuts should be effective; cornice drops as well. (Though be mindful of who might be below you) Shooting cracks will be a clue to localized drifting. Test slopes key as well.

Additional Information

We'll have mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy skies today. Mountain temps will rise to the upper teens; winds will blow 25-30 from the north/northwest and generally confined to the high ridgelines. High pressure will begin its slow stranglehold over the intermountain west.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Park City, Beaver Mountain, Canyons, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3773 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory bysubmitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class

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