Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples for
Friday, March 4, 2022
There is a weak layer of faceted snow on many slopes capped by last week's snowfall. The avalanche danger is MODERATE and human triggered avalanches remain possible on this layer on north and east facing slopes near and above treeline mostly in places where southwest winds drifted additional snow onto this layer. Today's snowfall shouldn't add up enough to drastically change the danger, but it could make avalanches in these locations a little easier to trigger.
At lower elevations, there isn't enough snow to cause avalanches on this layer, and on south and west facing slopes this layer doesn't exist. In these places the avalanche danger today is LOW.

HEADS UP - The good news is that a series of storms is just beginning. The bad news is that the avalanche danger will quickly rise as snowfall accumulates. It's time to shift our mindset to riding low angle slopes that should have great powder soon.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
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Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
After high temperatures reached 45-50 degrees F yesterday, temperatures dropped in most places overnight to just below freezing at 5 a.m. this morning. Under mostly cloudy skies, winds are blowing from the south-southwest at 11-18 mph gusting to 31 mph.
FORECAST-
Today will stay cloudy as the first of two troughs of low pressure moves through the region. Temperatures should hover a few degrees below freezing. Southerly winds will blow 15-25 mph, and precipitation should start around noon. Colder air is on its way, but there could be some rain today at low elevations with snow at upper elevations. There could be periods of heavy snowfall this afternoon, and 4-6 inches of snow should accumulate by tomorrow morning.
FUTURECAST-
The second trough of low pressure will bring 4-8 inches of snow Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Keep your fingers crossed for total snowfall by Sunday afternoon of 8-14 inches (containing nearly 1 inch of water). Temperatures should be in the low 20s F Saturday and the teens F by Sunday.
Snowfall tapers off Monday with a break on Tuesday followed by another storm with more snow on Wednesday/Thursday when strong westerly winds arrive.
Trip reports and current state of the snowpack observations are found HERE.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
A falling piece of cornice on Tuesday in upper Moffit Basin triggered an avalanche (2' deep by 200' wide) that is a heads up of things to come. Craig explains the set up in this video.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Prolonged dry weather in January/February created a persistent weak layer (PWL) of facets on the snow surface that was buried by last week's light snow. Despite record breaking heat this week, this layer remains cold, dry, and weak. It exists on northerly facing slopes as well as east facing and upper elevation southeast facing slopes. For today this PWL creates an avalanche problem where there is a cohesive slab on top of it. These places are higher elevations that either received more snow last week or received additional wind blown snow.
To be honest it's hard to believe how dry and weak this layer is until you see it and feel it with your own hands. In the photo below notice the smooth texture of the new snow on top of the rough, granular looking weak snow underneath. The trickiest part about this layer is it's distribution which will determine where avalanches occur after this weekend's snow. It is widespread on slopes generally sheltered from winds. At higher elevations, previous winds scoured the old snow surface and left this weak layer in random pockets. One slope may have it while another may not. One part of a slope may have this layer while another part of the same slope may not. Personally, I would assume that it exists everywhere.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Saturday, March 5th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.