UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Sunday, February 27, 2022
MODERATE avalanche danger is found at and above treeline, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass where fresh wind drifts rest on top of weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE and may break deeper and wider than you might expect. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. In terrain where winds haven't drifted snow, especially at mid and lower elevations, the avalanche danger is LOW and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
We're finally out of the deep freeze and temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time with most remote weather sites registering in the low to mid teens. Winds are light and westerly, blowing just 10-15 mph even along the high peaks. Dribs and drabs of new snow trickling in all week has added up and it's starting to feel deep, especially on wind-sheltered, shady slopes where the new snow rests on soft, faceted snow.
FORECAST-
Expect a stunning day in the mountains as building high pressure delivers light winds and nothin' but blue skies along with high temperatures climbing into the low 30's. Overnight lows dip into the teens and single digits.
FUTURECAST-
Clouds drift in and out of the region through midweek, but no big changes in the pattern until perhaps Thursday. Details for more stormy weather is still being sifted through and I'll keep you updated as details develop.
Trip reports and current state of the snowpack observations are found HERE.

Over-the-head and over-the-hood.... looks like Dan G found a honey hole yesterday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Reported yesterday, coyote tracks were spotted near this small slide on a steep, shady slope near Hoyt Peak. Not particularly large, just 10" deep and 100' wide, but this pockety slab is breaking on weak January snow and is a good indicator for the type of avalanche problem we're dealing with today.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As temperatures warm today and the last weeks cold snow begins to settle, pockety slabs will become touchy, reactive to our additional weight, and may break deeper and wider than you might expect.
As last week's storm snow settles, it's becoming more cohesive and beginning to bring the weak, sugary, near surface facets (NSF) formed during the January dryspell out of its dormancy. I spent the past couple days stomping around Upper Weber/Chalk Creek in an attempt to get a 30,000' view of weak layer distribution. Even though old snow surfaces vary greatly it's really the same story snowpack-wise. The weakest snow I've found is on east, north, and northeast aspects, especially on mid and upper elevation wind sheltered slopes. Here's where it gets tricky... large swaths of upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass were blasted by the winds prior to our recent storms and weak snow distribution is spotty at best. That means you'll need to evaluate each slope on an individual basis.

A sidebar HEADS UP - It's easy to be complacent because conditions aren't too dangerous, and avalanches may not be too big. HOWEVER, an avalanche fatality earlier this month in Montana near West Yellowstone is an example of how a relatively small avalanche can be deadly. That avalanche was 4-11 inches deep and 75 feet wide. Read more HERE.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This weeks uber-fluff storm snow contains very little water, it's super low density, and that means it's easily drifted by winds. And while recent winds have blown from nearly every quadrant of the compass, consistent westerly winds the past 48 hours have added just enough body and cohesion to the light fluffy snow, transforming it into a stiffer wind drift with slab-like characteristics.
Found mostly in upper elevation, leeward terrain, today's fresh wind drifts are gonna continue to be touchy, breaking 2' deep and may start to expand their boundaries and break wider than you might expect. In any case, avoiding avalanches today means just searching for soft snow untouched by the wind. Areas with wind drifted snow will look rounded, pillowy, and smooth and may sound hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Monday, February 28th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.