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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, February 25, 2021
Today, near and above treeline, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY and THEY'LL BE DEEP AND DANGEROUS, especially in the wind zone on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. Once triggered, today's avalanches can break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack

All other terrain below treeline offers MODERATE avalanche danger. Remember- many of these areas have a slab of snow resting on weak facets. And while the odds of triggering a slide have decreased somewhat, human triggered avalanches remain possible.

Here's your exit strategy-
Riding conditions are excellent on low elevation, wind sheltered slopes, where LOW avalanche danger is found. Take advantage gentle, rolling terrain that isn't steep enough to produce avalanches, but make sure to avoid being on or under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Yesterday's underwhelming cold front produced an inch or two of snow, but skies cleared overnight and this morning, a big, bright, beautiful moon lights up the mountains, providing a stunning backdrop to kickoff your day. Unfortunately, buzz-killing northeast winds made a debut, ramping up since about dinner-time last night and continue cranking into the 30's and 40's along the high ridges this morning. Along with the winds, cold air filtered into the region overnight and current temperatures are in the single digits. Mix in windchill and you have temperatures values clocking in at -28 degrees. Definitely not the kind of day you want to work on that ridgetop weather station you've been longing to get to all winter. Riding and turning conditions have taken a hit as recent winds had their way with our snow surface. But the Uinta's are white with total settled snow depths averaging right around 5' and there's plenty of room to roam.
Forecast-
A cold and sunny start to the day is on tap with decreasing winds and high temperatures climbing into the 20's. High clouds slide into the area late this afternoon and winds shift to the west and southwest ahead of a weak storm slated for Friday.
Futurecast-
A stronger system scheduled for Saturday should bring us a decent shot of snow with 6"-10" a good bet.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Two, very large, well-connected avalanches reported from Tuesday. Top image from Upper Weber Canyon, is an intentionally triggered slide with explosives, while the bottom image on Mt. Marsell was most likely cornice triggered. In either case, both avalanches broke to the dirt and illustrate the connectivity and meatiness of the slab.

More obs, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack is complex and many traditional snow stabilities tests offer green light conditions, especially if we dig or test in deep portions of the snowpack where the pack is strong. But where the rubber hits the road is the biggest clue to avalanches is... and that's avalanches! Steep, rocky slopes like in the image above is exactly the type of terrain where we could trigger a deep, dangerous avalanche today.
Our snowpack is consolidating, strengthening, and doesn't feel like a bottomless pile of loose sugar.... and that's good news. However, it's a double edge sword because this stronger snow feels solid under our skis, board, or sled but it in many places the slab rests on a facet/crust combo about 30 cm above the ground surface. All the avalanches I've looked at the past few days reveal failure at this layer and once triggered, avalanches are breaking deep and wide. So what this means is we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on. Now here's where it gets tricky... in terrain where the slab is thickest, avalanches are harder to trigger because it's more difficult to effect our suspect weak layers. However, thin spots, like around rocks or bushes, are often good trigger points and all we need to do is collapse the slope, initiate the slide, and now the entire seasons snowpack is crashing down on us.
The photo below shows weak snow near the ground, and how a snowmobile can stay on top of the snowpack. However, there are a lot of different ways for a sled or a skier to impact the weak layer. Because the snowpack is not the same depth across a slope, it's easy to hit a thin spot and trigger an avalanche. Tracks on a slope DO NOT mean it is safe or stable.
Ted was in the Millcreek zone on the east side of the range and reports a shallow snowpack with a slab on top... always a bad combo which could lead to more deceptively tricky avalanche conditions.
His great ob is found HERE.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unusual winds will create unusual avalanches. Above is a 24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak, clearly showing the direction and velocity of the current ridgetop wind trends.
There's no shortage of low density snow to blow around and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. However, the atypical wind direction loads terrain in unusual locations. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges with a westerly aspect, strong winds have deposited snow lower down-slope than we usually expect to see. In addition, fresh drifts also formed around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and sub-ridges. In any case, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it feels hollow like a drum. And remember- wind slabs add additional stress to buried persistent weak layers keeping them on edge, ready to fracture and produce an avalanche. What this means is that once triggered, a small wind slab may break deeper and wider than you might expect.
Additional Information
We will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Friday, February 26th.
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General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.