Although only a few inches were picked up overnight, with heavy periods of precipitation forecasted through today I would expect to find shallow slabs of soft, new snow up to 1’ deep by day's end. Before this storm, much of the snow surface was loose powder and facets, and I would also expect dry, loose snow avalanches in steep terrain.

With moderate winds gusting strong in upper-elevation terrain I would be on the lookout for wind drifts that are sensitive to a rider's additional weight today. These could look rounded, like pillows, and feel stiff under us. I expect these to be confined to upper-elevation ridgelines and nuanced terrain features that have the potential of cross-loading.

The old saying rings true: “Today’s powder is tomorrow’s weak layer”. The late October and early November snow that we have been riding on has faceted on many aspects at, and above treeline on the north half of the compass. I am closely monitoring the amount of water weight we will put on this weak layer. It seems unlikely that this weather pattern will bring enough snowfall to trigger widespread activity. However, I do anticipate some avalanches could break into the older, faceted layers near the ground within our shallow snowpack.

The avalanche from yesterday and Joey’s note for “remotely triggered” fit the mold of a persistent weak layer. As we develop a slab on top of the old snow and continue to load this weak set-up, we should pay attention to avalanche activity, slab development, and stability tests in our snow pits to monitor this problem closely. I am particularly watching heavily wind-loaded areas, as the added weight in these zones might be enough to break into these weaker layers.