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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, February 12, 2025
At and above treeline you'll find pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human-triggered avalanches are LIKELY especially on steep wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass, particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Now, here's the wind up and the pitch... once triggered, today's avalanches can fail on faceted snow now buried several feet deep, resulting in a slide breaking deeper and wider than you might expect, throwing a complete curve ball at my day. Slopes that are thin and rocky or have avalanched several times this season remain suspect and should be avoided.
Mid and low elevations offer mostly MODERATE danger where human-triggered avalanches within the weekend storm snow are POSSIBLE.
I'm not pulling on the avalanche dragon tails today. Instead, I'm flipping aspects to the south (solar) where fresh snow rests on a supportable base, or tagging a soft, creamy reward on low elevation, north facing, (polar) slopes with no overhead hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Huge thanks to PC Pro Patrol and especially Quinn Graves for the heavy lift ( I went lighter but with more reps: ) organizing last nights State of the Snowpack. The vibe, energy, and thirst for understanding a complex snowpack was readily apparent with the turnout. Please know, I deeply appreciate the opportunity to help spread the Avalanche Gospel.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A rather large, beautifully bright, full Wolf Moon peers through a band of high thin clouds that drift into the region aided by westerly winds blowing 20-30 mph near the peaks. A reinforcing shot of cold air settles into the eastern front allowing temperatures to crater to -14 degrees F, -25 degrees C, or for those doing the quick calculation on the Kelvin scale I'll save you the cerebral gymnastics... it's 248.15 K.... in other words... diesel gelling temperatures. Yesterdays storm delivered a couple inches of low density pixie dust and the riding is all time.
Forecast- Expect a lingering snow shower or two with little accumulation. Skies become partly cloudy as high temperatures claw their way into the single digits and low teens. West and northwest winds blow in the 30's near the high peaks, creating wind chill to -35 degrees... ouch!
Futurecast- The forecast remains on track for a long duration storm with an efficient Pacific moisture tap bringing substantial snowfall to our mountains. Snow fills in early Thursday afternoon, continuing through Saturday. Look for heaviest snowfall late Thursday into Friday morning. Snow density will be low at the onset of this storm, increasing on Friday as a warm, southwest flow slides through the region. Cooler air filtering in behind this system on Saturday brings decreasing snow densities through the remainder of the storm. Two inches of SWE and two plus feet of snow feels about right.
Ted Scroggin, our main man with the Uinta plan, was in the Whitney zone yesterday and reports.... "Really nice conditions with a foot of new snow and a solid base made for great riding and turning. I kept things simple and mellow today enjoying the snow and moving around low angle terrain." Well played sir!
Recent Avalanches
Generally manageable in size, but even a small storm slab like this piece of snow triggered Tuesday near Wolf Creek yesterday could potentially catch you off guard and boss you around a bit. Thanks to Cael for looping us in.
Get up to speed by checking out obs, avalanches and trip reports from across the range and beyond, here!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Theory on the left... a snow profile with ECTP 16 suggesting an energized snowpack. Application and reality on the right... a solid, meaty, connected slab that once triggered, would ruin your day.
Let's face it... the snowpack is downright complicated and the snow stability pattern is a bit like playing a game of Minesweeper (thanks Cody Hughes for the analogy :) But rather than just roll the dice and take my chances I'm wrapping my brain around some common snowpack themes to draw a rational conclusion and here's what we've got-
From tip to tail on the north half of the compass, faceted snow is now buried in the mid portion of the snowpack and a couple of feet beneath the snow surface. The semi-dormant PWL came back to life with Friday's dense snow (nearly 2" of SWE) and strong winds. We know this because the biggest clue to avalanches is... avalanches, as evidenced by natural and human triggered slides breaking up to 3' deep. Here's where the rubber hits the road... this problem isn't healing overnight, so we need to exercise a bit of patience. The good news is... the coverage is pretty remarkable and there's miles and miles of terrain to ride without even having to put ourselves at risk. Avoidance is key right now and all the avy-savvy folks I know are simply avoiding terrain where the problem exists and still get in a great day of riding. Done and done!
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Duchesne Ridge at 10,000' loaded up and corniced showing obvious sings of wind-drifting.
Recent winds whip up a batch of soft slabs, 6"-12" deep on mid and upper elevation leeward slopes, facing northwest through north through southeast. Look for signs of wind loading like fat, rounded pillows, cornices or scouring on windward slopes that help you gauge where the snow has been stripped and where it's been loaded. As we start to step into bigger, more consequential terrain, don't forget that even a manageable avalanche can become unmanageable quickly on the right slope.
Additional Information
The UAC Avalanche Transceiver Training Park is rocking and rolling at the Nobletts trailhead. Break out your gear, dust off your backcountry partners, and sharpen your perishable rescue skills with some practice!
General Announcements
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. In the meantime reach out to us with questions, concerns, or if you see anything in your travels! Contact us directly through the info below:
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast was issued on Wednesday, February 12th at 03:30AM and expires 24 hours after it was issued.
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