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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, February 13, 2025
Heads up-
A solid looking storm slams into the Uinta zone later today and we can expect rapidly changing avy conditions overnight.
For a good portion of the day, mid and upper elevation terrain delivers MODERATE avalanche danger and human-triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, especially on steep wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass and particularly in terrain with an easterly component to its aspect. Now, here's the wind up and the pitch... once triggered, today's avalanches can fail on faceted snow now buried several feet deep, resulting in a slide breaking deeper and wider than you might expect, throwing a complete curve ball at my day. Slopes that are thin and rocky or have avalanched several times this season remain suspect and should be avoided.
Flipping to the solar half of the compass, south aspects, along with shady slopes near our trailheads offer LOW avalanche danger.
Low
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Avalanche Watch
* WHAT...The avalanche danger for the warning area is expected to rise to HIGH overnight and into the weekend.
* WHERE...For the mountains of northern and central Utah including the Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...the Uinta Mountains and the Manti-Skyline Plateau.
* WHEN...Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop tonight and last through the weekend. (The Watch is in effect from 6 AM MST this morning to 6 PM MST Saturday.)
* IMPACTS...Expected heavy snowfall and strong winds will lead to widespread and very dangerous avalanche conditions. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A bright, yet waning Snow Moon, cast a beautiful glow on our mountains this morning as temperatures slowly claw their way out of negative territory and into the low single digits. Southwest winds hum along in the mid 20's near the high peaks adding a bite to the air, creating wind chill to -27 degrees, or about 13 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Guaranteed it'll be a crisp approach this morning, but the return on finger numbing investment is worth the five star riding.
Forecast- With a solid looking storm on our doorstep, clouds, wind, and temperatures increase as the day wares on. Southwest winds start the day in the reasonable category, but do their best to work towards rockin' and rowdy, blowing in the 50's by about dinnertime. Light snow begins early this afternoon, as temperatures climb into mid and upper 20's and don't stray much overnight.
Futurecast- Look for a multi-day storm with several pieces of energy sliding into the Uinta zone today through the weekend. This is a good storm for the eastern front, though I think the south half of the range does well with the first slug of moisture, but the North Slope catches up Friday night into Saturday. In either case, a foot of dense, heavy snow is on tap to kick off the weekend. After a break early Sunday, another system is poised to bring colder temperatures and additional snow for late Sunday. Storm totals with two inches of SWE and a couple feet of snow feels about right.
Here we go. Our longtime partners at the City of Salt's National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning for the western Uinta Mountains.
Joey and I stomped around Chalk Creek yesterday and found a solid looking snowpack, some moody weather, and a bit o' low angle love :)
Recent Avalanches
No significant avalanche activity to report.
Get up to speed by checking out obs, avalanches and trip reports from across the range and beyond, here!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Theory on the left... a snow profile with ECTP 16 suggesting an energized snowpack. Application and reality on the right... a solid, meaty, connected slab that once triggered, would ruin your day.
Let's face it... the snowpack is downright complicated and the snow stability pattern is a bit like playing a game of Minesweeper (thanks Cody Hughes for the analogy :) But rather than just roll the dice and take my chances I'm wrapping my brain around some common snowpack themes to draw a rational conclusion and here's what we've got-
From tip to tail on the north half of the compass, faceted snow is now buried in the mid portion of the snowpack and a couple of feet beneath the snow surface. The semi-dormant PWL came back to life with last Friday's dense snow (nearly 2" of SWE) and strong winds. We know this because the biggest clue to avalanches is... avalanches, as evidenced by natural and human triggered slides breaking up to 3' deep. Here's where the rubber hits the road... this problem isn't healing overnight, so we need to exercise a bit of patience. The good news is... the coverage is pretty remarkable and there's miles and miles of terrain to ride without even having to put ourselves at risk. Avoidance is key right now and all the avy-savvy folks I know are simply avoiding terrain where the problem exists and still get in a great day of riding. Done and done!
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds begin nuking later in the day and that'll change the landscape and whip up yet another fresh batch of drifts. Starting off straight-forward and predictable, I suspect wind slabs become more widespread and reactive to our additional weight by days end. As the storm unfolds, look for signs of wind loading like fat, rounded pillows and cornices, or scouring on windward slopes that help you gauge where the snow has been stripped from and where it's been loaded to.
Additional Information
The UAC Avalanche Transceiver Training Park is rocking and rolling at the Nobletts trailhead. Break out your gear, dust off your backcountry partners, and sharpen your perishable rescue skills with some practice!
General Announcements
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. In the meantime reach out to us with questions, concerns, or if you see anything in your travels! Contact us directly through the info below:
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast was issued on Thursday, February 13th at 03:30AM and expires 24 hours after it was issued.
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