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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Thursday, December 23, 2021
HEADS UP... THIS IS THE REAL DEAL! Look for increasing avalanche danger as the storm evolves.
For today, a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind drifted, mid and upper elevation slopes, particularly those facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Once initiated, even a small slide will quickly get out of hand, especially if it breaks to old, October snow. It'll be packing a punch and it's gonna boss you around.
You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger developing at lower elevations. While slightly more straight-forward, steep, shady terrain remains suspect and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
I know you're looking to avoid the avalanche dragon today, so the ticket is to simply switch aspect or lose elevation and set your sights on low angle terrain that was bare prior to last weeks big storm. You'll find generally LOW avalanche danger on slopes with these characteristics.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Watch
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY.
AN AVALANCHE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH AND THAT OF COURSE, INCLUDES THE WESTERN UINTA'S.
HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Hang on to your hats! There's an atmospheric river on the doorstep and we can expect a multi-day storm event. Kicking off the residency, southerly winds cranked into the 40's and 50's overnight with temperatures remaining rather mild, registering in the mid to upper 20's. No new snow to report and it's still low tide near the trailheads, but gain some elevation and you'll find we've got a respectable base which averages close to 30" in most upper elevation areas.
FORECAST-
It'll be cloudy and warm with highs climbing into the mid 30's. Southerly winds blast the ridges, clocking in at 40-60 mph, gusting in the 80's near the peaks this evening. Snow showers develop this morning through midday, with a couple inches stacking up, but the main event gets here overnight. Look for several hours of intense snowfall with 2" an hour snow advertised by computer models. A foot of snow overnight seems like a solid bet.
FUTURECAST-
Snow continues through much of Friday, tapering off early Saturday, however that'll be short-lived as another storm slides in Sunday and Monday. But wait... there's more! Yet another system is on tap for late Monday and Tuesday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanche activity observed since Ted and I rolled into Upper Moffit Basin on Monday to work on a weather station and discovered this monster avalanche that peeled off Windy Peak sometime late last Saturday. Breaking 10' deep and 600' wide... an eye-catcher for sure. In addition, there's no shortage of both human triggered and natural avalanches from last weeks storm and an updated list is found HERE
Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's pretty straight-forward and the avalanche danger is about get real. Our fragile snowpack is gonna get slammed with dense, heavy, water laden snow and weak layers buried in our midpack are gonna come back to life. As the storm unfolds avalanche danger gets progressively more dangerous and any avalanche triggered results in a deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurviveable slide. The most likely place to encounter this avalanche dragon is on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially terrain that harbors old, October snow.
But here's the good news... it doesn't mean we can't ride. It does mean we need to avoid terrain with these characteristics. You can have a blast in a big open meadow or on low angle terrain with no steep slopes above or adjacent to you... done and done :)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once the snow starts flying, strong winds will create widespread drifts sensitive to our additional weight. Look for and avoid, steep wind drifted slopes at all elevations, especially if they look fat and rounded or sound hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Friday December 24th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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