Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Sunday, December 19, 2021
Deceptively dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Please don't get lured into a false sense of security with fresh snow and abundant sunshine-
Steep, wind drifted, mid and upper elevation slopes, particularly those facing the north half of the compass offer CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and human triggered slides are LIKELY. Once initiated, even a small slide will quickly get out of hand, especially if it breaks to old, October snow. It'll be packing a punch and will instantly ruin your day.
You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger below treeline. While slightly more manageable, even lower elevation, shady terrain is getting in on the act and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes.
I know you're looking to avoid the avalanche dragon today, so the ticket is to simply switch aspect or lose elevation and set your sights on terrain that was bare prior to our recent round of storms. You'll find generally LOW avalanche danger on slopes with these characteristics.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Just 'cause you can see it from the road doesn't necessarily make it safe and Wolf Creek Pass is a perfect example. Yesterday's crew did it right by stacking tracks in the sunny bowl with no old snow issues, while avoiding the temptation to dive into the steep, shady bowl where the dangerous Avalanche Dragon or Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) is found... nice work!
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Under clear skies, our mountains look amazing this morning under a big, bright, beautiful moon. Temperatures have steadily climbed out of the deep freeze and currently register in the teens and mid 20's. Southerly winds bumped into the 20's overnight, remaining in that range and rather well-behaved early this morning. Riding and turning conditions continuing improving with each storm and now we've got a respectable base which averages close to 30" in most upper elevation areas.
FORECAST-
High pressure hangs tough today, providing sunny skies, temperatures climbing into the 30's, and southwest winds blowing in the mid 20's along the ridges. Overnight temperatures dip into the low to mid 20's.
FUTURECAST-
The mountains are gonna be the ticket early in the workweek as valley inversions are certain. The next storm system brings mountain snow on Wednesday, but the best chances for significant snow are slated for Thursday into Friday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
This slide in Roundy Basin is one of many reported from yesterday. No shortage of both human triggered and natural avalanches to report and an updated list is found HERE

Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Andy and Joey stomped around the south half of the range and have an excellent observation from their travels found HERE. Above, Andy pretty much sums up what's going on with our dangerous, strong snow over weak snow setup.
With a little new snow on top of our structurally challenged snowpack it's gonna be easy to get lured into a false sense of security. However, we need to think not about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on. And it's so deceptively tricky because a stronger cohesive slab rests on fragile, old October snow... or what we call a persistent weak layer (PWL). This is always a dangerous combination in our mountains because the stronger snow feels bomber under our skis, board, or sled. It often allows us to get well out onto the slope before the weak layer fails (usually around a bush or rock we can't see under the snow), the avalanche breaks above us, and now the entire seasons snowpack crashes down on top of us. The most likely place to encounter this avalanche dragon is on steep mid and upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially terrain that harbors old, October snow.
But here's the good news... it doesn't mean we can't ride. It does mean we need to avoid terrain with these characteristics. You can have a blast in a big open meadow or on low angle terrain with no steep slopes above or adjacent to you... done and done :)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Thursday near Wolf Creek Pass, Mark experienced large collapses with huge shooting cracks on two wind-loaded, north-facing slopes. If they were steeper they would have produced avalanches. Remember- shooting cracks and collapses are a huge red flag and indicator of unstable snowpack conditions.
Southerly winds raged before, during, and after our big midweek storm, stripping most windward (south facing) slopes to bare ground and depositing that snow to the leeward (northerly facing) side of mid and upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. But here's the problem... now all those dense, hard wind drifts are now camouflaged under yesterday's snow that fell straight out of the sky and they'll be harder to detect. So let's not try to overthink this one. Keep it simple and simply avoid any steep slope facing the north half of the compass, especially if it appears fat and rounded or sounds hollow like a drum. And remember- any avalanche that initiates in the new snow may break deeper and wider as it crashes down on the slope below, creating a larger slide than you might expect.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Monday December 20th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.