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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, December 17, 2019
HEADS UP... dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Any avalanche that breaks to old snow near the ground WILL quickly get out of hand, resulting in a deep, dangerous slide.
UNPREDICTABLE and UNMANAGEABLE-
In the wind zone at mid and upper elevations, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially those with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY, particularly in rocky terrain harboring weak, pre-existing, early season snow near the ground.
MORE PREDICTABLE-
Fresh drifts are most prevalent along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies where MODERATE avalanche danger is found and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. Common theme is- once triggered, today's drifts may break a little deeper and wider than you might expect.
Here's your exit strategy-
Wind sheltered low elevation south facing terrain, and big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding generally offers LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
It is with a heavy heart that I report a tragic, backcountry avalanche accident which occurred yesterday in the Dutch Draw area along the Park City/Big Cottonwood Canyon ridge-line. Of course, our collective thoughts, prayers, and energy go out to the friends and family of Raymond M. Tauszik, 45, of Salt Lake City.
A preliminary report is found here.
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear, and temperatures in single digits and low teens. Northerly winds kicked up late yesterday afternoon and continued overnight, blowing 15-25 mph along the high peaks. Last weeks multi-day storm finally started winding down late, last Saturday night, but man... what a storm! The range got pasted and storm totals are pretty staggering for the eastern front with just about 36" of snow and nearly 2.5" of water. HUGE numbers for us! Most remote weather stations doubled snow depth totals in 72 hours. Riding and turning conditions are quite good and low angle, wind sheltered slopes are the ticket.
For today-
Expect a stunning day in the mountain with sunny skies, northerly winds blowing in the 20's, and temperatures rising into the mid 20's.
Future cast-
Southwest winds increase on Wednesday ahead of a weak storm system that produces little more than increased clouds Wednesday night.
Recent Avalanches
From Sunday in Smith-Moorehouse, Randy remotely triggered this slide and notes.... "We triggered this remotely from ridge above, have seen it go before in similar conditions so was expecting this. Failed on old snow from October storms, ran to ground. Would expect a repeat. Also dug a pit 20 min before on similar aspect and noticed widespread collapsing while moving through the lower angle terrain."
Slightly older news from the weekend... arrows indicate prevailing winds during the storm and point to several large, connected avalanches in upper Weber Canyon.
Recent avalanche activity and trip reports are found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
No big overnight changes on this front as our weak snow near the ground needs time to heal. These are the kind of avalanche conditions that kill most snowmobilers and guaranteed, it's deceptively tricky out there.
So, here's the deal. We've got it all... big storm totals, massive water weight, and three days worth of raging west-southwest winds. And remember, all of this weight (and stress) is stacked on top of weak snow near the ground just waiting for us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. This is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. Now here's where it gets tricky... we've got great coverage, the range is white, and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. But we've gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on, and right now it's a house of cards.
No matter how you cut it, this is not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. Once initiated, they'll break deep and wide and could take out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle terrain in the sun and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes.
There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Our recent pit profile on a northwest facing slope near Wolf Creek Bowl. Pretty clear to see a defining line of strong snow resting on top of weak snow near the ground.
JG was near Wolf Creek yesterday and reports... " Pit results continue to reflect weak basal snow with columns failing with medium effort in this layer." More on JG's travels are found here.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, you'll find fresh, yet manageable drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges on all aspects. And while older drifts from last weeks big storm are stubborn and less reactive to our additional weight, remember- winds cranked during the big storm, drifting snow in unusual locations and around terrain features like chutes and gullies.
Your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
This small avalanche along the Co-op Trail is a great indicator of recent strong winds drifting snow slightly further downslope than we're used to seeing. With a red flag like this, I know I can trigger a much larger slide as I gain elevation and get into big, open terrain.
Additional Information
Let's visit on Thursday at the Park City Library, where I'll discuss last years accidents, this years snow structure, and the recent tragic avalanche accident that occurred over the weekend.
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds support the UAC. Get your tickets HERE.
Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. INFO
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Wednesday Dec. 18th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.