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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Monday morning, December 16, 2019
HEADS UP... dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Any avalanche that breaks to old snow near the ground WILL quickly get out of hand, resulting in a deep, dangerous slide.
UNPREDICTABLE, UNMANAGEABLE, and possibly UNSURVIVABLE-
In the wind zone at mid and upper elevations, HIGH avalanche danger is found on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially those with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY, particularly in rocky terrain harboring weak, pre-existing, early season snow near the ground.
During the storm, strong winds drifted snow everywhere. Expect old wind drifts, now covered over with fresh snow, sensitive to our additional weight. Drifting is most prevalent along the leeward side of mid elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Common theme is- once triggered, today's drifts may break a little deeper and wider than you might expect.
Even low elevation north facing terrain got in on the act where you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanche are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes near trailhead elevations.
Here's your exit strategy-
Wind sheltered low elevation south facing terrain, and big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding generally offers LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
This morning, it is with a heavy heart that I report a tragic, backcountry avalanche accident which occurred yesterday in the Dutch Draw area along the Park City/Big Cottonwood Canyon ridge-line. Of course, our collective thoughts, prayers, and energy go out to the friends and family of everyone involved.
A preliminary report is found here.
Weather and Snow
Light snow showers fall across the range as a weak storm slides through the region. There's hardly a breath of wind, even along the high peaks, and it's cold, with temperatures registering right around zero degrees.
The multi-day storm finally started winding down late Saturday night, but man... what a storm! The range got pasted and storm totals are pretty staggering for the eastern front with just about 36" of snow and nearly 2.5" of water. HUGE numbers for us! Most remote weather stations doubled snow depth totals in 72 hours.
For today-
Scattered snow showers, cold air, and light winds are on tap today. Look for highs reaching into the teens with overnight lows dipping into negative territory
Future cast-
High pressure builds in through the first half of the week with continued cool temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions.
Recent Avalanches
From yesterday in Smith-Moorehouse, Randy remotely triggered this slide and notes.... "We triggered this remotely from ridge above, have seen it go before in similar conditions so was expecting this. Failed on old snow from October storms, ran to ground. Would expect a repeat. Also dug a pit 20 min before on similar aspect and noticed widespread collapsing while moving through the lower angle terrain."
Recent avalanche activity and trip reports are found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
No big overnight changes on this front as our weak snow near the ground needs time to heal. These are the kind of avalanche conditions that kill most snowmobilers and guaranteed, it's deceptively tricky out there.
So, here's the deal. We've got it all... big storm totals, massive water weight, and three days worth of raging west-southwest winds. And remember, all of this weight (and stress) is stacked on top of weak snow near the ground just waiting for us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. This is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. Now here's where it gets tricky... we've got great coverage, the range is white, and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. But we've gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on, and right now it's a house of cards.
No matter how you cut it, this is the real deal and not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. Once initiated, they'll break deep and wide and could take out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle terrain in the sun and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes.
There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Our pit profile on a northwest facing slope near Wolf Creek Bowl. Pretty clear to see a defining line of strong snow resting on top of weak snow near the ground.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds cranked during the big storm, blowing from a variety of directions and there was no shortage of snow available to blow around. Yesterday, I found old wind drifts a bit stubborn and less reactive to my additional weight, but I didn't pull on the dogs tail too hard trying to confirm what I already know, and that is... any slide I trigger may break slightly wider and deeper than I might expect.
For today, I suspect you could still find a lingering drift or two along the leeward of mid and upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
Drifts are found along the leeward side of ridges and slightly further downslope like the slide triggered on Saturday near Wolf Creek in the image above.
Additional Information
The Mailman delivered a new "loaner" sled to the UAC Friday and Chad took it out for a rip Saturday, assisting in field work and forecasting.
Huge thanks to Karl Malone Polaris in Heber for helping to support the Utah Avalanche Center and our efforts to access more terrain, which helps us issue more accurate forecasts.
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds support the UAC. Get your tickets HERE.
Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. INFO
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Tuesday Dec. 17th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.