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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, December 15, 2019
HEADS UP... dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Any avalanche that breaks to old snow near the ground WILL quickly get out of hand, resulting in a deep, dangerous slide.
UNPREDICTABLE, UNMANAGEABLE, and UNSURVIVABLE-
In the wind zone at mid and upper elevations, HIGH avalanche danger is found on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially those with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY, particularly in rocky terrain harboring weak, pre-existing, early season snow near the ground.
Strong, sustained winds drifted snow everywhere. Expect both new and old wind drifts sensitive to our additional weight along the leeward side of mid elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Common theme is- once triggered, today's drifts may break a little deeper and wider than you might expect.
Even low elevation terrain is getting in on the act where you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanche are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes near trailhead elevations.
Here's your exit strategy-
Wind sheltered low elevation south facing terrain, and big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding generally offers LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Mailman delivered a new "loaner" sled to the UAC Friday and Chad took it out for a rip yesterday, assisting in field work and forecasting. Chad's trip report is found here.
Huge thanks to Karl Malone Polaris in Heber for helping to support the Utah Avalanche Center and our efforts to access more terrain, which helps us issue more accurate forecasts.
Weather and Snow
The multi-day storm finally started winding down late last night, but man... what a storm! The range got pasted and storm totals are pretty staggering for the eastern front with just about 36" of snow and nearly 2.5" of water. HUGE numbers for us! Most remote weather stations doubled snow depth totals in 72 hours. In the wake of the big storm, skies cleared and temperatures crashed like a bad stock option, currently hovering right around zero degrees. Northerly winds blow 10-20 mph along the high peaks.
For today-
Scattered snow showers, colder air, and light winds are on tap today. Look for highs reaching into the teens with overnight lows dipping into the single digits.
Future cast- A weak weather system slides through Sunday night into Monday morning, with some light snow showers possible, otherwise, high pressure builds for the first half of the week with continued cool temperatures and dry conditions. Winds remain light through the first half of the week.
Recent Avalanches
From Friday, the avalanche above near Heber Mountain, was 3'-6' deep, triggered from a distance, and broke to the dirt. This slide occurred on a steep, upper elevation, shady slope and is a huge piece of bulls-eye information, confirming suspicions we already know that this is exactly the type of terrain we need to avoid. Thanks to Mike for the observant eye and for reporting this critical piece of information.
In addition, shallower, yet surprisingly connected wind drifts were triggered near the summit of Wolf Creek Pass yesterday. I appreciate Dan submitting his findings here.
Also... Tyler St. Jeor was teaching an avy class out of Soapstone yesterday and reports big, booming collapses and sketchy snow structure. He submitted an excellent writeup and his trip report is found here.
Recent avalanche activity and trip reports are found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
These are the kind of avalanche conditions that kill most snowmobilers and guaranteed, our snowpack is teetering on the edge.
So, here's the deal. We've got it all... big storm totals, massive water weight, and three days worth of raging west-southwest winds. And remember, all of this weight (and stress) is stacked on top of weak snow near the ground just waiting for us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. This is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. Now here's where it gets tricky... we've got great coverage, the range is white, and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. But we've gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on, and right now it's a house of cards.
No matter how you cut it, this is the real deal and not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. Once initiated, they'll break deep and wide and could take out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle terrain in the sun and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes.
There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Our pit profile on a northwest facing slope near Wolf Creek Bowl. Pretty clear to see a defining line of strong snow resting on top of weak snow near the ground.
Yesterday, Bo and I stomped around near Wolf Creek Pass prior to our avalanche class Friday night and found our snowpit stability tests suggest a strengthening snowpack (good news), but failures continue to revolve around weak, basal snow (bad news). What this means is... it might be harder to initiate a slide, but the piece of snow you trigger will dangerously break to the ground.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds cranked during the big storm and there's no shortage of snow available to blow around. I suspect widespread drifting in the obvious places, along the leeward of mid and upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. But due to the severity and duration of wind strength, I bet drifting also occurred at lower elevations and lower downslope than we usually expect. In any case, both new and old drifts may break slightly wider and deeper than you might expect. Your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
Additional Information
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds support the UAC. Get your tickets HERE.
Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. INFO
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Monday Dec. 16th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.
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