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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, November 22, 2018
As the storm gets going expect the avalanche danger to rise from Moderate to Considerable, especially on mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass and particularly on slopes with pre-existing early season snow. In terrain with these characteristics, human triggered avalanches will become likely by days end.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving! A change in the weather is on tap and I'm expecting a good shot of snow, water, and wind beginning today. Of course this means avalanche conditions will change rapidly starting today and ramping up through the weekend. Read on to the details below to get a handle on the type of avalanche dragon you can expect to encounter if you're headed to the mountains.
Weather and Snow
A blanket of clouds moved over the region overnight and temperatures hover right around freezing this morning. Southerly winds are ramping up, blowing in the 30's along the high ridges. And yep, this all signals an active weather begining this morning. Today is the warm up band and we'll see periods of light to moderate snow with 3"-6" expected by late in the day and a break scheduled for Friday. The main event is still on tap for Friday night and Saturday. Click HERE for a great viddy synopsis created by our good friends and partners at the National Weather Service.
Above are 24 hour wind and temperatures from Windy Peak (10,662') along with temperatures and snowdepth from Chalk Creek (9,169')
Our main man Ted Scroggin has been out and about, stomping around Bald Mountain Pass and in Whitney Basin since early November. He reports a thin, yet layered snowpack with about 18" of snow on the ground on upper elevation, north facing slopes.
This is exactly the type of terrain that's gonna be sketchy as the holiday storm evolves.
Wanna avoid avalanche danger this weekend? Of course you do and it's easy. Simply steer clear of any mid or upper elevation slope that has pre-existing, early season snow Your exit strategy is to swing around to south facing terrain which has no old snow and you can ride without the worry of avalanches breaking to weak snow near the ground.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanche activity to report
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Our shallow snowpack is in its infancy and its got issues. And now for the first time this winter, our fragile pack will experience its first big stability test.
The bullseye terrain and the slopes you want to avoid are located in mid and upper elevations, particularly those facing the north half of the compass where the snowpack is weak and sugary. While there's a little bit of structure and a couple of crusts holding things together, quite frankly, I don't think this setup is much of a match for the strong winds, coupled with a good dose of water and snow forecast for the next couple of days. We'll have to see how the storm plays out, but I suspect that as the new storm snow stacks up, avalanches will begin breaking to weak snow near the ground. So the good news is we've got a storm which will get the season rolling. The bad news is... any avalanche triggered will quickly get out of hand, revealing a myraid of hidden obstacles that could easily ruin your day or end your season.
Mirror Lake Highway and Wolf Creek Pass are still open, but just 'cause you can see your rig parked on Bald Mountain Pass or near Wolf Creek, doesn't mean the terrain you're choosing to ride is good to go.
Remember- this is the time of year where most of us get tricked thinking there isn't enough snow to avalanche. However, this is also the type of setup when most close calls and accidents occur. If you are getting out and about, be prepared for your own self rescue. Wear and know how to use an avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.
Both Ted and Michael J found similar snow structure on opposite sides of the range. Michael's pit is from Wolf Creek yesterday... more details here. Ted's ob is from Hayden Pass... more details here.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Friday November 23rd, 2018.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.