Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Friday, January 26, 2024
Short term pain... long term gain-
We're slowly trending in the right direction, but not quite there just yet. A little patience now delivers big return on investment in the future.
At and above treeline, pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on all slopes, but particularly those facing the north half of the compass. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY in wind drifted terrain, especially steep, rocky slopes in the wind zone with an easterly component to their aspect. Any slide you trigger today has the potential to break deeper and wider than you might expect... instantly ruining your day.

Look for MODERATE avalanche danger on mid elevation slopes near treeline facing west, southwest, and south, but also on lower elevation shady slopes as well. In either case, dense snow rests on weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanche are POSSIBLE.
There are plenty of low angle options out there to avoid avy danger yet still get some great riding. It's simple, just steer your snow vehicle towards lower elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass where you'll find LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Huge thanks to Carl and Lori Churchill, along with their entire Alpha Coffee team for hosting last nights, State of Snowpack prezo to a packed house! And special thanks to everyone who took time out of their busy lives to attend. Alpha Coffee provides a killer venue... y'all bring an awesome vibe, and it's this combo that creates an unforgettable experience which has me grateful for the opportunity to see old friends, make new ones, and to keep rollin' forward with a community energy that can't be matched... what an absolute honor :)
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A slightly waning, full Wolf Moon peaks out from thinning clouds as yesterday's storm tucks tail and limps to the east in shame, after robbing northern Utah with an under-performing delivery and just 2"-4" of low density snow. Temperatures register in the teens and low 20's while winds are light and northerly, blowing just 5-15 mph even near the high ridgelines. On the south half of the compass I think you'll be hitting the old snow surface, but switch to the low angle shady's and you'll be rewarded with soft, creamy snow on a go anywhere base.
Forecast- A stray snow shower or two drifts through the region early this morning, but in general we can expect clearing skies as the day progresses. High temperatures climb into the mid 30's and winds remain well-behaved, blowing 10-20 mph along the high peaks.
Futurecast- High pressure builds in earnest through the weekend and into next week. But don't let your heart be troubled... a glimmer of hope for storminess shines towards the end of the work week. I'll keep you updated as deets materialize.

The snowpack grew by leaps and bounds since the big January 13th storm roared into town, delivering collosal amounts of snow and Herculean water content. The Uintas are white with settled snow depths averaging of 3-4 feet and some high elevation snowbelt zones registering just over 5 feet. The image above on a northeast facing slope at 9,800' illustrates our current setup. Soft powder on the surface, a hard/dense layer which is the big January storm snow, resting on several layers of facets that you won't know exist unless you dig into the snow and Snoop (dog) around.
Snow summary from NRCS SNOTEL sites:
Chalk Creek #1 (9,171') - 49" snow depth (10.7" total water)
Trial Lake (9,992') - 57" snow depth (10.7" total water)
Wolf Creek Peak (9,796') - 40" snow depth (8.7" total water)
Currant Creek (7,915') - 29" snow depth (6.6" total water)
Daniels-Strawberry (8,008') - 36" snow depth (8.8" total water)
Strawberry Divide (8,123') - 44" snow depth (11.3" total water)
Recent Avalanches
Mark and Weston D discovered this very large avalanche in the Moffit Drainage Wednesday. Westin provides the narrative and a blow by blow description of this impressive slide.
No shortage of noteworthy avy activity found HERE

Read more Uinta observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Averaging 3.5' deep and 1,500' wide, this is an impressive piece of snow, wrapping around the entire east face of Moffit Bowl. The jury is deliberating on the trigger, but it appears the slide occurred Saturday or Sunday (Jan 20 or 21).
The snowpack is slowly healing, it's becoming slightly more comfortable in its own skin, and it's gonna give us a lot of false, green light feedback. The in yer face instabilities are gonna be more subtle. Gone are the days of loud, booming, tree shaking collapses and shooting cracks. In fact, the surface snow will ride like a dream, while the entire snowpack feels bomber and good to go under our skis, board, or sled. But we've gotta remember the mid January storm is a strong, cohesive slab resting on weak snow created during the mid December dryspell. And these are the exact conditions where we can ride plenty of slopes without incident, but find one slice of terrain where all the pieces align, knock the legs out from underneath, and the entire roof will caves in on us. Likely suspects include steep rocky slopes in the alpine with a shallow, weak snowpack.
Snwo-pros Joey Manship and Wes Shirey stomped around the Mirror Lake corridor and report a little encouraging news... "The 1F slab in gaining even more strength in this area. 1F is almost leaning towards pencil hardness and over 40cm thick. The PWL has gained some strength and is not reacting in pit tests but it is still dry loose 3-4 mm facets and over 50 cm thick. I believe its starting to round but has a long way to go for any significant healing."
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Soft, fresh wind drifts-
Not widespread, but I bet there's a fresh wind drift or two that'll react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, don't be surprised with a drift or two lurking around terrain features like chutes and gullies.
Stiff, older wind drifts-
While more the exception than the rule, older, stiffer drifts formed during the big January storm are still found in mid and upper elevation, leeward terrain. Remember... even a small wind drift can break deeper and wider than you might expect as it crashes down on the slope below. A good rule of thumb is to simply avoid steep, wind drifted, leeward slopes, especially if they appear fat and rounded or sound hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.

We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements

Issued at 0430 on Friday, January 26th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Saturday, January 27th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.