UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!
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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Saturday morning, January 16, 2021
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE near and above treeline on slopes facing northwest through southeast. These slopes are ones with the best coverage and the most snow. Triggering an avalanche remains possible, especially on any slopes loaded by recent winds where avalanches will break in old, weak, faceted snow.
All other slopes at low elevations and ones facing west and south have minimal snow and a LOW avalanche danger.
The best places to ride are shaded slopes near treeline with the deepest snow, but avoid ones with fresh drifts and ones steeper than 30 degrees and you'll avoid avalanches.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Discount lift tickets are available thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
It's snowing this morning, but it should end as quickly as it began with just an inch or so of snow for this "storm". Temperatures range from the upper 20s F at trailheads to low 20s F at higher elevations. Winds are blowing from the NW generally 5-10 mph. Above 10,000 ft, NW winds are blowing 10-20 mph and gusting 30 mph.
Forecast-
Skies will clear this morning and be mostly sunny today with temperatures warming into the upper 20s and low 30s F. Winds should continue as they are this morning and ease this afternoon.
Futurecast-
Another inch of snow could fall Monday night followed by dry conditions for the rest of the week. The good news is that the weather pattern becomes increasingly active with snowfall expected next weekend.
Overall snow depths are 2-3 feet with many slopes above treeline affected by recent winds. More sheltered slopes have recrystallized powder on the surface and a soft crust on southerly facing slopes. Ted Scroggin put it best saying "The coverage out in Mill Creek is ok, but there are many logs and stumps to watch out for. It is white, but white and lumpy." The photo below from Ted shows snow coverage in that area.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday there was one intentionally triggered avalanche reported near Humpy Peak about 50 ft wide. It was on a north-facing slope near 10,400 feet involving a very hard slab of recently wind drifted snow that broke on the old faceted snow above a crust from November.
On Thursday, there was a natural avalanche reported on Tower Mountain involving wind drifted snow.
Read other trip reports here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most likely places to get an avalanche are northerly and easterly facing slopes if they have been loaded by recent winds. On these slopes avalanches may break 1-2 feet deep on a persistent weak layer of facets generally found about a foot above the ground.
Yesterday Craig and I rode out of Mill Hollow and we found two things: (1) The snowpack is generally weak & rotten & full of facets. Even the snow surface has faceted which made for great skiing conditions. (2) Strong winds occurred on Wednesday & Thursday from the west and north. Further north just east of Bear River in Mill Creek, Ted Scroggin found similar conditions and has a great report here.
What does all of this mean? Below treeline, the snowpack is basically one big persistent weak layer lacking a slab on top to create an avalanche. Near treeline snow depths increase some, and there is more of a slab on top of the weak snow. Without loading from significant snowfall, weak facets buried in the snowpack aren't as sensitive as they were last weekend except in places loaded by recent winds.
Photo - north aspect near 10k feet. Snow layers near the shovel blade are snow that fell in November and early December. The weakest snow is the obvious stripe of facets near the top edge of the shovel blade. That stripe of weak snow sits on a decomposing crust. Snow near the shovel handle is the slab that can create an avalanche. Slopes with the added weight of wind drifted snow on top of this layering are the ones most likely to avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very strong winds have blown from the west and northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Slabs of this wind drifted snow that formed on south aspects should be mostly stable by now. Wind slabs on north and east aspects have added weight and stress to a persistent weak layer of facets as described above.
There are two types of wind loading patterns to look for - top loading and cross loading as shown in the two images below.
Additional Information
Craig will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Sunday January 17th.
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General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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