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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Friday morning, January 15, 2021
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE near and above treeline on slopes facing northwest through southeast. These slopes are ones with the best coverage and the most snow. Triggering an avalanche remains possible, especially on any slopes loaded by yesterday's winds where avalanches will break in old, weak, faceted snow.
All other slopes at low elevations and ones facing west and south have minimal snow and a LOW avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Last Saturday, a group of snowbikers triggered a slide that fully buried their friend north of Logan. Because they all had avalanche transceivers, probes and shovels and he was uninjured by the slide, they made a successful recovery.
If you're searching for an alternative to avoid dangerous backcountry conditions, well look no further. Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Winds eased some since yesterday everywhere except on Currant Creek Peak where they are blowing 35 mph from the NW gusting to 50 mph. In all other places, NW winds are blowing 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph. Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper teens F and skies are clear.
Forecast-
Today will be noticeably warmer than yesterday with high temperatures near 32 degrees F. Through the day winds will slowly decrease and skies will become increasingly cloudy. Tonight a trace to 1 inch of snow should fall.
Futurecast-
Another inch of snow could fall Monday night followed by dry conditions for the rest of the week. The good news is that the weather pattern becomes increasingly active with snowfall expected next weekend.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday on Tower Mountain just north of Currant Creek Peak, there was one natural avalanche that happened from recent westerly winds drifting snow and building the cornice on the east-facing part of Tower Mountain. A group in a week-long professional avalanche class saw this avalanche and also submitted this great report.
Read other trip reports here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's no secret - the snowpack is weak, rotten, and faceted on northerly and easterly facing slopes. In general, the odds of triggering an avalanche have decreased because the snowpack hasn't been stressed by the weight of new snow. The exception is specific slopes with the additional weight of wind-blown snow where triggering a slide is more likely.
The challenge is that slopes with the best coverage are generally ones harboring this weak snow with a slab on top. What's the strategy today?
  1. Avoid recently wind loaded slopes. Look for evidence of this wind deposited snow because it looks round, smooth, and pillowly. It often exists under cornices. Look at the images in the next section showing patterns of wind loading.
  2. Ride slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness where avalanches don't happen and don't ride under steeper slopes. You could trigger an avalanche on a steep slope by just tickling the bottom of it.
  3. If you do ride something steeper, first ask what the consequences of triggering an avalanche will be? It could break 2 feet deep and several hundred feet wide. Where will it take you?
The graph below from students in a professional avalanche course shows the layers in the snowpack. The horizontal bars indicate the hardness of the layers. Longer bars show hard layers. Shorter bars show softer layers. Strong snow over weak snow is the recipe for an avalanche. I like to interpret it as a kindergarten student would - when you place big blocks on top of small blocks, all it takes is a bump and all the blocks fall down.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very strong winds have blown from the west and northwest the last two days. They didn't have much snow to transport but they found some. Slabs of this wind drifted snow may cause small avalanches on their own. The bigger problem is that the additional weight and cohesion of these wind slabs can cause avalanches to break deeper in the snowpack on a persistent weak layer of facets as described above.
There are two types of wind loading patterns to look for - top loading and cross loading as shown in the two images below.
Additional Information
I'll update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Saturday January 16th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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