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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Friday morning, January 12, 2024
This is the real-deal... the snowpack is super sketchy and the setup is nothing to mess around with-
Recent winds coupled with heavy snow deliver a one-two punch and the avy danger is HIGH. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are VERY LIKELY, particularly in steep, leeward terrain above treeline, and especially in the wind zone on slopes with an easterly component to its aspect. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to break deeper and wider than you might expect... it'll pack a powerful, season ending punch.
Wind penetrated mid and low elevation terrain where you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep wind drifted slopes.
MODERATE avalanche danger exists on south aspects near lower elevation trailheads where fresh storm snow reacts to our additional weight and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Here's your exit strategy-
I know you're looking for a place to ride, but it's time to really rein it in. Big, open, low elevation meadows with NO overhead hazard (no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding) are the ticket. Remember, the snowpack is in its infancy and it's still lean with no shortage of equipment trashing rocks and stumps barely lurking underneath a thin coat of white paint.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
An AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Saturday, for the mountains of northern and central Utah, including the Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...Uinta Mountains...and Manti-Skyline plateau.
The avalanche danger is HIGH. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are VERY LIKELY.
Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are likely. Please stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Special Announcements
Huge thanks and high-fives to Park City Pro Patrol, especially Quinn Graves, and to everyone who took time out of their busy lives to join me for last nights State of the Snowpack prezo. Y'all brought an amazing vibe, creating a warm, inviting environment, and delivered a remarkable group discussion on how we as a community can move forward... safely. 'Twas most excellent to see old friends and make some new ones as well. Know that I am deeply grateful to you, our collective backcountry family, and know that I am honored for opportunity :)
Also, Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- High clouds drift into the region, whilst winds blowing from the southwest bumped into the 30's and 40's right around dinner time and continue in that spirit early this morning. An evenly distributed couple inches of fresh snow fell overnight, delivering a thin coat of white paint across the range. It's an icebox as the mercury sluggishly wraps up the night shift with temperatures hovering in negative territory. Wind chill values are brutal and register to -31 degrees near the high peaks. I know you came for the wind, but I hope you'll stay for the snow.... it's over-the-hood and in yer face.
Forecast- While the main act waits in the green room, the unplugged, acoustic version delivers a nice refresh with 6"-10" of snow expected by day's end. West and southwest winds are gonna be obnoxious, blowing in the 40's and 50's along the high ridges. Temperatures barely scratch their way into the low teens while overnight lows crater into negative territory.
Futurecast- Word on the street.... and in today's forecast discussion "a relentless period of winter weather expected to impact mainly northern and central Utah." Saturday's storm is a bit warmer and it hooks up with a piece of Atmospheric River... that combo lights up the western Uinta's. A little bird tells me... big snow and big water by Monday.
Rivaling a Phish show encore... a curious mix of colors and a lot going on here as our good friends and longtime partners at the SLC NWS issue a Winter Storm Warning for the Uinta zone.
Recent Avalanches
Steve Martin (avy-savvy, pro rider extraordinaire... not comedian :) was near Gold Hill yesterday morning when he remotely triggered this slide (from a distance). Remote triggers speak to the unpredictable nature of our snowpack.
Many miles apart, but experiencing similar conditions, I was in Upper Weber Canyon whilst snow-pro and local legend Ted Scroggin was on the east side of the range near Whiskey Creek and noted.... "I did not need to see a lot of area after seeing small road bank avalanches and hearing numerous collapses, confirming all the red flags. A dense slab now rests on top of very weak snow." Sage advice and words of wisdom from someone who know the Uintas like no other.
More Uinta avy activity found HERE
Latest Uinta observations are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The biggest clue to avalanches is ???... AVALANCHES! These slides, triggered remotely along a ridgeline, failed on the mid December drought layer.
It's game on, it's tricky out there, and the personality of our avalanche dragon is getting downright rowdy. In fact, slabs triggered from a distance are becoming the rule more than the exception.
Here's the setup... a strong cohesive slab rests on a Gong Show of weak, old, sugary snow, or in snow-geek-speak... a persistent weak layer (PWL) formed during the December dryspell. Whatever your classification, know that once triggered, any avalanche breaking into older snow will instantly ruin your day.
Here's what we do to keep it simple... it's time to pump the brakes and simply stay off of and out from under steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Find the wind and you find the problem. Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661')
Winds have been all over the map this week, blowing from nearly every quadrant of the compass and penetrating into lower elevation terrain. Ramping up overnight and switching to the west and southwest, winds blowing in the 30's and 40's have no problem whipping up fresh drifts, sensitive to our additional weight. Today, we need to look for and avoid fresh wind drifts on the leeward side of ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Any slide triggered will break deeper and wider than you might expect.
Additional Information
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 0430 on Friday, January 12th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Saturday, January 13th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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