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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion for
Sunday, March 5, 2023
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all upper-elevation slopes and mid-elevation slopes facing west through north through southeast where freshly formed wind drifts are the primary concern. The avalanche danger is LOW on lower-elevation slopes where there has been overall less wind.
Small, long-running sluffs and shallow soft slab avalanches may become possible in steep, sustained terrain as the storm develops.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Still great riding to be found out there. Most aspects seem to have stayed generally cold and spared from any sun or warmer temperatures, solars might have a small crust from yesterday. Overnight, a trace amount to 2" of new snow fell. The winds picked up overnight, blowing from the southwest at moderate to strong speeds, with some upper elevation gusts close to 70 mph. Temperatures have been in the mid-teens and low 20s over the last 24 hours.
Mountain Weather: We'll have cloudy skies, with consistent snow showers throughout the day. Accumulation by this evening should be between 2-5" of new snow, favoring the northern end of the range. Temperatures should remain in the mid-20s. The southwest winds should begin to decrease throughout the day, but we may still have the occasional moderate to strong gust. Overnight snow totals could bring an additional 2-5" of new snow to the area before tapering off Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, all these pulses could add up to 10" to a foot of new snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The high southwest winds, in combination with new snow, will continue to form fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow along all aspects at upper elevations and leeward features at mid-elevations. These wind drifts will be generally shallow but could be sensitive to the weight of a rider today.
Avoid very steep slopes where the wind has signs of drifted and deposited snow. These signs of wind-drifted snow may be less obvious with few inches of new snow today, so pay attention to cracking, collapsing, or any pillow-shaped slopes.
These wind-drifted snow avalanches may entrain snow from the past few storms on steeper slopes and could be more than enough to take a rider off their feet. Even a small avalanche can be consequential in hazardous terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As this storm delevops and we get more snowfall, we may begin to find both fast, long-running sluffs as well as sensitive soft slabs of new snow on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. The type of avalanche will come down to how quickly the new snow bonds, versus how quickly the snow is falling from the sky. Watch for signs of instability such as cracking and sluffing.
Pay attention to the changing weather, if we get more snowfall than expected or periods of very heavy snowfall, the sensitivity of the new snow will rapidly rise.
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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