Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Thursday, March 3, 2022
There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches are becoming less likely but still possible.
The most likely spots are more on the north half of the compass.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
No significant change in conditions over the last 24 hours. Highs were in the mid 40s and lows were in the low 30s. Southwest wind has been light.
Mountain Weather
We have another day of mild weather in store with high clouds, temperatures again into the mid 40s and light southwest wind. A large messy storm system will start to move in on Friday and last through the weekend. There will be a number of periods of snow and I'm thinking we should pick up about a foot by the time it's all said and done.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This period of warm weather certainly is helping settle, consolidate and stabilize the new snow from last week as well as the buried Persistent Weak Layer of facets that formed in late January and early February. The buried facets are still capable of producing an avalanche right now. The most likely locations to trigger something would be on the more northerly aspects. The big question for me is how the buried facets will behave with a new load of snow. Things will no doubt be more stubborn than they were during our last storms. I'm just not sure how reactive they will be this round. Here's the deal with buried facets though. They are guilty until proven innocent. I'll be playing it cautiously this weekend.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There's been some minor wet avalanche activity involving the new snow on sunny aspects. This situation doesn't usually pose much threat to people. Simply avoid being on steep slopes once the sun heats them up to the point where they are becoming "mushy". Avoid being underneath cornices as the daytime heating progresses.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.