Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches are possible.
The most likely spots are more on the north half of the compass.
Personally, I'm still playing it pretty cautious out there. Buried sugary faceted snow can not be trusted.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
That certainly was a good stretch of riding but the powder party is about over for now. Warm temperatures and the high sun angle have heated the snow on all but the most due north facing slopes. Temperatures were into the mid 40s along the higher terrain on Tuesday and stayed mild overnight with most stations above freezing. The southwest wind has been light.
Mountain Weather
There are two more days of mild weather before the next storm system moves in. We'll have sun and ridgetop temperatures into the 40s with generally light southwest wind. Storms start to move in late Friday with a number of periods of snow through the weekend.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I found a mixed bag of stability results from tests on Tuesday. I was able to get a test slope to fracture and release when I cut it with my machine. I also got another slope to shatter and crack later in the day. These results point to touchy conditions still. However, I also did a snowpit test where the results were pretty stubborn. ECTP23. The weak layer still failed and propagated but it was difficult to make it fail. The warm springlike temperatures are working in our favor to help settle and consolidate the new snow and the underlying weak snow. To put this in simple terms, things are becoming less dangerous although you can still find places to trigger an avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There's been some minor wet avalanche activity involving the new snow on sunny aspects. This situation doesn't usually pose much threat to people. Simply avoid being on steep slopes once the sun heats them up to the point where they are becoming "mushy". Avoid being underneath cornices as the daytime heating progresses.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.