Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Monday, March 28, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes above 9500' that face west, north and east.
Human triggered and natural avalanches are possible still today.
Warm temperatures have made an existing unstable snowpack even more unstable.
Today will most likely be the last day of serious avalanche danger. I'm anticipating better stability as the wet sloppy snow freezes up tonight.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Two generous UAC supporters are challenging the community to invest in the future of the UAC’s forecasting program during the 2022 Spring Campaign. They will match your donation, dollar for dollar, up to $10,000. Donate today to support avalanche forecasting!
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
There's been a huge change in the snowpack conditions over the last few days. Extremely warm temperatures have made the entire snowpack damp in most locations. The exception is a few very high elevation steep north facing slopes where if you dig down you can find what resembles dry layers of snow. The snowpack was sloppy and mostly unsupportable by mid day on Sunday. My snowmachine track was punching deep into the wet snow in many places. If I stopped to get off, my boots would punch knee deep through the sloppy wet snow. Temperatures remained warm again overnight with most stations hovering around 40˚F. Southerly wind is moderate in speed.
Mountain Weather
Temperatures will start to cool down later today as a period of stormy weather moves in. High temperatures won't climb all that much. Southerly wind will probably get a little stronger and may feel quite breezy along the exposed ridges. A large closed low pressure system will move through tonight into Wednesday. We'll see periods of snow starting late today. I'm expecting 3 to 5 inches overnight then another 3 to 5 inches Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A short wave trough closely follows this storm and moves through Thursday bringing an additional shot of snow.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It is very possible that we put the Persistent Weak Layer problem to bed after temperatures cool down today. Things still remain unstable right now and I would continue to avoid steep slopes that face west, north and east. If you are punching through deep into wet snow, this is a big clue to stay off of steep slopes.
The warm weather has drastically changed the snowpack. The layer of sugary faceted snow has become damp at almost all locations. It is still wet and loose at the current time but it should stabilize as colder air moves in this week.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.