Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Thursday, March 24, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes above 9500' that face west, north and east.
Human triggered avalanches breaking 3 feet deep in these locations are likely.
Warm temperatures could cause natural avalanches breaking into the buried weak snow from Jan/Feb.
As temperatures heat up today, the safest bet is just to avoid steep terrain. Things are fairly unpredictable right now.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
It was slightly breezy still on Wednesday with high temperatures into the mid 30s to around 40. The wind has backed off down in the canyons but is still blowing at a light to moderate speed from the northwest along the highest terrain. Overnight temperatures hovered right around freezing.
Mountain Weather
We'll see sun today with high temperatures into the low 40s and light to moderate speed northwest wind. The warming trend continues through Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures each day. A storm is still shaping up for Monday night into Tuesday which could bring a decent amount of snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Things are going to change a bit over the next few days regarding the buried Persistent Weak Layer and the very warm temperatures today through the weekend. Human triggered avalanches are still likely on the northerly facing upper elevation steep slopes. However, we will want to also avoid steep east and west facing slopes as the sun and warm temperatures may be enough to warm the snow to the point that natural avalanches break into the buried weak layer. My suspicion is that this won't be today. Friday and especially Saturday are the most likely days for heat initiated avalanches. However, this stuff is tricky to predict. Here are the two things I can say for sure:
  1. We have a buried weak layer about 3' down in the snowpack that remains unstable.
  2. We will have very warm temperatures from now through the weekend.
These two factors often will produce natural avalanches. Continue to use extra caution if you are going into the mountains. It is wise to just avoid all the steep slopes while this weak layer remains active.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.