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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
There is a MODERATE avalanche danger rating in the mid and upper elevation steep terrain.
The most dangerous areas will be along the higher ridges where the wind has drifted snow.
If you avoid fresh wind drifts, slabs and cornices, you'll most likely avoid any avalanche danger.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Nice storm!! It produced a bit better than I was anticipating. There's an average of 10 inches of new snow since Sunday. The Fairview region and Ferron Canyon area both picked up 12". The wind wasn't outrageously strong during the storm but certainly drifted some snow along the higher terrain. We still have moderate speed wind from the southwest. Temperatures have been around 20˚F since around noon yesterday. For more details on the snow conditions, check out this BACKCOUNTRY SNOW OBSERVATION from Chris Magerl.
Mountain Weather: We have a quick break this morning then snow will return this afternoon. Anticipate increasing clouds this morning. Temperatures will get into the mid 20s. Wind will be light to moderate in speed from the south or even southeast. We'll have periods of snow this afternoon through Wednesday which should produce another 6 to 12 inches. There's more snow anticipated Thursday and another round Friday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow is your main concern today. I don't know how it's behaving, but I suspect it's stable outside of any wind-affected areas. Places where the snow may be unstable are in areas with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. These usually form right along the ridges but watch out for them on any terrain features such as gully walls.
Here's your strategy:
  • Watch for cracking within the new snow.
  • Hit small but steep test slopes to see if the new snow stays in place. If you do this a bunch of times and the snow stays in place, it indicates stability.
  • Avoid areas with fresh drifts and slabs of wind drifted snow. Drifts are always the most sensitive when they are forming and directly after. It's too soon to trust that these wind slabs will stay in place.
If you are really concerned about triggering an avalanche, simply avoid being on or below slopes that are steeper than 30˚.
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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