Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Monday, January 16, 2023
The majority of terrain on the Skyline has a MODERATE danger rating today.
The danger rating is CONSIDERABLE in the upper elevation north through east facing terrain.
14 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours along with gusty wind may have created unstable conditions within the new snow.
The danger will be increasing as we add more snow today and Tuesday.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The Utah Avalanche Center, Snow Big Deal and Sanpete County Search and Rescue will be hosting a FREE AVALANCHE BEACON TRAINING on Saturday, Jan 21 from 9am to 1pm at the north Skyline Drive parking lot at the top of Fairview Canyon. Come by anytime between 9 and 1 and we will spend about a half hour with you teaching you how to properly use your avalanche beacon, shovel and probe.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The storm flow shifted from southwest to more westerly on Sunday. The north end of the Skyline picked up the most snow early on with the southwest flow. The mid and southern Skyline caught up with the shift to a westerly flow. Overall, there's about 14 inches of new snow evenly distributed across the Skyline since Saturday night. The wind got a little breezy on Sunday and was definitely drifting snow. Temperatures have gradually been decreasing and most stations are around 20˚F or into the upper teens this morning. Out of wind effected terrain, riding conditions remain excellent.
Mountain Weather: We have a quick break from snowfall this morning. Periods of snow will start again as the morning progresses and we'll see periods of snow for the next 48 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if another foot of snow slowly stacks up. Temperatures should stay in the low 20s today. Wind will be from the south and speeds should remain pretty light this morning with perhaps a bit of an increase during the day. The weather pattern continues to look active with more chances for snow later in the week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
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Description
When we get new snow, determining if it is unstable is our first concern. Often, the new snow is stable and won't crack or avalanche. Other times, it can be sensitive. A big factor that can make new snow unstable is wind. Fresh drifts and slabs of snow are often sensitive when they are forming and directly afterward.
The good thing about new snow instabilities is that usually you can figure out pretty quickly if the new snow is unstable. Look for recent avalanches. Watch for cracking within the new snow. Use small steep TEST SLOPES to see if you can initiate any cracking by cutting on them with your skis or machine.
The other good thing about new snow instabilities is that they often "settle out" and stabilize pretty rapidly.
For today, I'm not quite sure if the new snow is stable or not. I was not able to get into places on Sunday that would've been the most suspect. Follow the advice above to assess the new snow and avoid steep terrain if you see any signs of instability. Two things to keep in mind:
  1. There was some wind on Sunday which was drifting snow.
  2. More snow will stack up during the day today.
Both of these factors will enhance any instabilities that are present.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.